Good morning.
Tuesday trade has gotten off to a quiet start this morning at the CBOT, with trading ranges and volume both on the lighter side for all three of the corn, beans and wheat. With little new again specific to any fundamentals for the three, there continues to be a macro focus, and we see this again driving price action today baring a biofuel policy announcement from either Trump or his administration. Corn and wheat futures this morning are each trading unchanged to a penny higher, and the soybean market is trading 1-3 cents higher.
South American consultancy firm AgRural said in a weekly report on Monday that soybean harvest across Brazil has reached 4.9% complete as of late last week, which is up around a percent from the same day last year; the group also raised their production forecast 0.6 MMTs to 181 MMTs. For corn, safrinha planting was seen at 4.7% complete vs 2.2% last year, while first crop harvest is seen at 5% complete vs 8.6% last year.
Cash sources familiar with the matter said this week that Chinese importers have purchased as many as ten cargoes of Canadian canola since meetings in Beijing between PM Mark Carney and Chinese President Xi Jinping, easing what has been a tight supply situation for domestic crushers and possibly disrupting some export flows from Australia. The cargoes are expected to ship between February and April and are said to be around 65,000 MTs a piece.
Along similar lines, Chinese soybean importers are also shifting purchasing habits, with sources saying buyers have booked some 25+ cargoes of Brazilian soybeans in the past week following the completion of their 12 MMT purchase commitment with the US a week or so ago. The shipments are said to be for delivery in March and April and were allegedly done at prices well below those out of the US, though exact figures weren’t given.
On the trade front this morning, sources are reporting that India and the EU have reached a long sought trade agreement, as nearly 20 years’ worth of discussions have apparently finally led to a breakthrough between the two sides aimed at lowering tariffs and deepening supply chain cooperation between the two as both try and diverse away from China and the US. An official announcement on the matter is expected to come at some point later today.
There is fear that the federal government could again shutdown on Friday this week, as Democrats and Republicans continue to still be at odds on a funding bill that would allow things to continue operating normally. House Republicans have signaled that if democrats in the Senate allow the government to shut down, any legislation to reopen it would include the proposed SAVE act, which would increase the odds that if a shutdown occurs, it lasts for an extended period of time.
Nothing new forecast-wise this morning for the Midwest, as models continue to see cold and relatively dry conditions as likely for the remainder of the week and into the weekend. The models see some sort of low-pressure system forming Saturday into Sunday in the southeast, but at least as of this morning, it looks like the bulk of the precipitation from this system will stay off in the Atlantic as it skirts up the East Coast. With little else in the way of disturbances this week, this is the one forecast feature that will need monitoring.
The EU model is back drier this morning across the eastern part of Argentina, with precipitation now again expected to favor the western half of the country while the east and southeast stay on the lighter side. The forecast still isn’t as dry as it was last week, but it will be important to see how these rains develop over the next 7-10 days. The EU model is also cooler than the GFS for the same period and keeps most of Argentina’s growing regions in an average temperature pattern over the next 10 days. Little to note on Brazil, as the forecast here continues to be like recent runs.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 01-27-2026
Good morning.
Tuesday trade has gotten off to a quiet start this morning at the CBOT, with trading ranges and volume both on the lighter side for all three of the corn, beans and wheat. With little new again specific to any fundamentals for the three, there continues to be a macro focus, and we see this again driving price action today baring a biofuel policy announcement from either Trump or his administration. Corn and wheat futures this morning are each trading unchanged to a penny higher, and the soybean market is trading 1-3 cents higher.
South American consultancy firm AgRural said in a weekly report on Monday that soybean harvest across Brazil has reached 4.9% complete as of late last week, which is up around a percent from the same day last year; the group also raised their production forecast 0.6 MMTs to 181 MMTs. For corn, safrinha planting was seen at 4.7% complete vs 2.2% last year, while first crop harvest is seen at 5% complete vs 8.6% last year.
Cash sources familiar with the matter said this week that Chinese importers have purchased as many as ten cargoes of Canadian canola since meetings in Beijing between PM Mark Carney and Chinese President Xi Jinping, easing what has been a tight supply situation for domestic crushers and possibly disrupting some export flows from Australia. The cargoes are expected to ship between February and April and are said to be around 65,000 MTs a piece.
Along similar lines, Chinese soybean importers are also shifting purchasing habits, with sources saying buyers have booked some 25+ cargoes of Brazilian soybeans in the past week following the completion of their 12 MMT purchase commitment with the US a week or so ago. The shipments are said to be for delivery in March and April and were allegedly done at prices well below those out of the US, though exact figures weren’t given.
On the trade front this morning, sources are reporting that India and the EU have reached a long sought trade agreement, as nearly 20 years’ worth of discussions have apparently finally led to a breakthrough between the two sides aimed at lowering tariffs and deepening supply chain cooperation between the two as both try and diverse away from China and the US. An official announcement on the matter is expected to come at some point later today.
There is fear that the federal government could again shutdown on Friday this week, as Democrats and Republicans continue to still be at odds on a funding bill that would allow things to continue operating normally. House Republicans have signaled that if democrats in the Senate allow the government to shut down, any legislation to reopen it would include the proposed SAVE act, which would increase the odds that if a shutdown occurs, it lasts for an extended period of time.
Nothing new forecast-wise this morning for the Midwest, as models continue to see cold and relatively dry conditions as likely for the remainder of the week and into the weekend. The models see some sort of low-pressure system forming Saturday into Sunday in the southeast, but at least as of this morning, it looks like the bulk of the precipitation from this system will stay off in the Atlantic as it skirts up the East Coast. With little else in the way of disturbances this week, this is the one forecast feature that will need monitoring.
The EU model is back drier this morning across the eastern part of Argentina, with precipitation now again expected to favor the western half of the country while the east and southeast stay on the lighter side. The forecast still isn’t as dry as it was last week, but it will be important to see how these rains develop over the next 7-10 days. The EU model is also cooler than the GFS for the same period and keeps most of Argentina’s growing regions in an average temperature pattern over the next 10 days. Little to note on Brazil, as the forecast here continues to be like recent runs.
Have a great day.
View All News >