Good morning.
The ag space is higher and near its highs for the session so far to start mid-week trade, with buying present from the word go last night on another round of biofuel optimism on the part of traders. President Trump mentioned E15 during his speech in Iowa yesterday, but the real excitement is coming from an EPA headline that the RVO for 2026 has been finalized internally and that it would be released sometime between now and March. The corn market this morning is trading 2-3 cents higher, soybeans are trading 7-10 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 6-8 cents higher.
This morning’s weekly ethanol report from the EIA us expected to show average daily production in the US in the week ending January 23rd between 1.020-1.105 mil bbls, while stocks for the week are estimated between 25.50-26.139 mil bbls. If accurate, the production figure would be down from the week prior and would be logical given a winter storm and subsequent cold snap that likely caused plants to see some slower operations for a few days.
The President of Coamo, which is Brazil’s largest grain coop, told Reuters on Tuesday that he expects this year’s soybean harvest to be its largest ever, which is in line with other private groups who have routinely kept production estimates in the mid-180 MMTs range.
Russia’s Ag Minister said on Tuesday at a conference in Dubai that Russian grain exports in 2025 totaled roughly 50 MMTs, while harvest totaled roughly 140 MMTs. The figures include 91 MMTs of wheat production and 41 MMTs of exports and are expected to rise to 170 MMTs and 80 MMTs respectively by 2030. Minister Lut also talked about Russian plans to target global markets with seeds and technologies, framing it is a necessity amid the shrinking of its markets due to increased production levels around the world.
Prior to Trump’s comments in IA yesterday, five House Democrats penned a letter to Speaker Mike Johnson asking for “fair and equal representation” on the newly formed E15 Rural Domestic Energy Council, which is a recently started working group tasked with finding solutions for higher ethanol blend gasoline. The group said that a lack of such representation would undermine the council’s ability to find a lasting bipartisan solution to the matter.
Evidenced by the lack of headlines and overall sideways trading pattern, the CME Group’s volatility index shows implied volatility in the soybean market has fallen to its lowest level in more than 12 months, reflecting a market that is largely comfortable with the current fundamental landscape. While low volatility can suggest calmness in the market, it also means any new shock on any of the weather, policy, or geopolitical fronts could leave trades potentially vulnerable to an expansion of volatility and risks later in the year.
Along with comments on Ethanol yesterday, the other big take away from Trump’s Iowa speech was that he commented on the US dollar index, calling its recent slide “great” and signaling that he little concern over its current fundamentals. After dropping to its lowest level in nearly four years yesterday, the index is trading just moderately lower this morning, but it is well off the Tuesday lows.
US weather focus remains on the southeast this morning, where models remain in decent agreement on another blast of cold air and a large winter storm system again impacting parts of the southeast and the East Coast this morning Friday night into Saturday. Snow is expected to impact parts of the Carolinas and VA, but most of the snowfall, especially further north, is seen staying out in the Atlantic by the models. On the temperature side, daytime highs in Tampa Bay, FL this weekend will struggle to reach 50 on Sunday, with overnight lows seen touching freezing or near freezing across most all of the state.
Overnight forecasts are wetter through southern and south-central Brazil Thurs/Fri/Sat this week but are otherwise little changed from previous runs elsewhere. Regular rains look to continue through the north and north-central part of the country, while precipitation in Argentina will continue to favor regions to the west and north. Heat here will linger for another couple days into the end of the week but then moderate into the beginning of next week and continues to not be an issue anywhere in Brazil.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 01-28-2026
Good morning.
The ag space is higher and near its highs for the session so far to start mid-week trade, with buying present from the word go last night on another round of biofuel optimism on the part of traders. President Trump mentioned E15 during his speech in Iowa yesterday, but the real excitement is coming from an EPA headline that the RVO for 2026 has been finalized internally and that it would be released sometime between now and March. The corn market this morning is trading 2-3 cents higher, soybeans are trading 7-10 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 6-8 cents higher.
This morning’s weekly ethanol report from the EIA us expected to show average daily production in the US in the week ending January 23rd between 1.020-1.105 mil bbls, while stocks for the week are estimated between 25.50-26.139 mil bbls. If accurate, the production figure would be down from the week prior and would be logical given a winter storm and subsequent cold snap that likely caused plants to see some slower operations for a few days.
The President of Coamo, which is Brazil’s largest grain coop, told Reuters on Tuesday that he expects this year’s soybean harvest to be its largest ever, which is in line with other private groups who have routinely kept production estimates in the mid-180 MMTs range.
Russia’s Ag Minister said on Tuesday at a conference in Dubai that Russian grain exports in 2025 totaled roughly 50 MMTs, while harvest totaled roughly 140 MMTs. The figures include 91 MMTs of wheat production and 41 MMTs of exports and are expected to rise to 170 MMTs and 80 MMTs respectively by 2030. Minister Lut also talked about Russian plans to target global markets with seeds and technologies, framing it is a necessity amid the shrinking of its markets due to increased production levels around the world.
Prior to Trump’s comments in IA yesterday, five House Democrats penned a letter to Speaker Mike Johnson asking for “fair and equal representation” on the newly formed E15 Rural Domestic Energy Council, which is a recently started working group tasked with finding solutions for higher ethanol blend gasoline. The group said that a lack of such representation would undermine the council’s ability to find a lasting bipartisan solution to the matter.
Evidenced by the lack of headlines and overall sideways trading pattern, the CME Group’s volatility index shows implied volatility in the soybean market has fallen to its lowest level in more than 12 months, reflecting a market that is largely comfortable with the current fundamental landscape. While low volatility can suggest calmness in the market, it also means any new shock on any of the weather, policy, or geopolitical fronts could leave trades potentially vulnerable to an expansion of volatility and risks later in the year.
Along with comments on Ethanol yesterday, the other big take away from Trump’s Iowa speech was that he commented on the US dollar index, calling its recent slide “great” and signaling that he little concern over its current fundamentals. After dropping to its lowest level in nearly four years yesterday, the index is trading just moderately lower this morning, but it is well off the Tuesday lows.
US weather focus remains on the southeast this morning, where models remain in decent agreement on another blast of cold air and a large winter storm system again impacting parts of the southeast and the East Coast this morning Friday night into Saturday. Snow is expected to impact parts of the Carolinas and VA, but most of the snowfall, especially further north, is seen staying out in the Atlantic by the models. On the temperature side, daytime highs in Tampa Bay, FL this weekend will struggle to reach 50 on Sunday, with overnight lows seen touching freezing or near freezing across most all of the state.
Overnight forecasts are wetter through southern and south-central Brazil Thurs/Fri/Sat this week but are otherwise little changed from previous runs elsewhere. Regular rains look to continue through the north and north-central part of the country, while precipitation in Argentina will continue to favor regions to the west and north. Heat here will linger for another couple days into the end of the week but then moderate into the beginning of next week and continues to not be an issue anywhere in Brazil.
Have a great day.
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