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Grain Comments: 01/30/2023

Much of today’s session will focus on the start of month end positioning. While this will be muted this month from the lack of spot contracts going into delivery, we will still see position squaring. Weather in South America will again be a key factor in today’s session as rains have fallen in many of the driest regions of both Brazil and Argentina, but more is needed. While forecasts are calling for more rains in South America, heat is expected to return as we move into February which will apply stress to the regions that have missed on recent rains. Planting progress will also become more of a factor for South America this week as any fields in Brazil that are expected to be seeded to Safrinha have shown yield drag if planted after mid-February. There is still time for active planting to take place but the slow start to the soybean harvest is causing corn planting delays. Before long Brazilian farmers will also be approaching the government’s final plant date on corn. Corn planting in Brazil has a strict cutoff date to give soils adequate rest between crops to improve soil quality. China returns from their Lunar New Year holiday today and thoughts they will be active buyers gave the market much of its overnight strength. Improving global economic indicators were also positive for commodity values.

 

Highlights

  • Importers using reserves to offset purchases
  • Loss of acres to reduce Ukraine crops
  • US gasoline demand under previous year for 16 months
  • Last week’s ethanol stocks build largest on record
  • Drier weather to favor Brazil harvest
  • US economy remains strong
  • US consumer spending not slowing
  • Chinese commodity demand to rise
  • China back from Lunar New Year
  • Month end positioning to build

 

Corn

  • March corn was +6 ¾ last week
  • EU imports twice last year’s volume
  • Ukraine 2023 crop -9 mmt from 2022
  • China focused on Brazil offers
  • China accounts for 28% of US sales

 

Soybeans

  • March soybeans were up 3 cents last week
  • Brazil harvest gaining momentum
  • EU imports -19% from last year
  • More talk of US sales shifting to SAM
  • China accounts for 61% of US demand

 

Have a great day!

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