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Grain Comments: 01/31/2023

Good Morning:

Even with questionable global production, the United States is being pressured by cheaper corn and soybean offers. The most notable of these is from Brazil on soybeans which is not a surprise given the start of their harvest of a record crop. Brazilian soybean production is expected to be nearly 30% greater than last year which is contributing to the record world supply. This is negating all worry in the world market over the tight ending stocks in the US. Brazilian soybeans are currently being offered at a 50 to 75 cent per bushel discount to the US. Brazilian meal offers are well under the US as well. Brazil corn offers for summer shipment are also at a discount to the US. Ukraine corn offers are also under the US, but their supply is being questioned. The most surprise on corn is from Argentina where even with a smaller crop being projected, offers for spring shipment are at a 10-15 cent per bushel discount to the US. The United States is also seeing competition from alternative grains in the global market such as feed wheat. Traditional buyers of US corn such as Japan and South Korea have recently increased their feed wheat purchases which is not helping us overcome our already depressed corn sales pace.

Highlights

  • Fuel costs keep US freight elevated
  • Order time for US trains above 4-year average
  • Weather favors Ukraine crops
  • Ukraine precip 80-110% of normal
  • US ethanol values firming
  • Ethanol averages $2.10/gallon
  • US DDGs $10/ton weaker
  • Export basis firms US basis
  • Country movement remains light
  • Month end positioning to build


Corn

  • Ukraine acres higher than thought
  • China to buy large volume Brazil corn
  • Argentine crop rating rising
  • US sales to China at 265 mbu
  • Brazil crop potential increases


Soybeans

  • Brazil basis seeing harvest pressure
  • Brazil cash soybeans lowest since Dec 2021
  • Brazil yields 4-8% above previous record
  • Rains improve Argentine crop
  • US sales to China at 1.04 bbu

Have a great day!

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