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Grain Comments: 02/02/2023
Good Morning:
We are starting to see a difference of opinion on the US soybean export program. US unshipped soybean sales are up 42% from last year and are the second highest on record for this time of year. Cumulative US soybean sales also remain well above the pace needed to meet current USDA yearly projections. While this is positive news, the question is how much future demand we will see. The Brazilian soybean harvest is advancing and soon we will see their new crop soybeans flowing into the global market. There is little doubt this will cut into demand for US soybeans. The most interest is what will happen to Chinese demand which accounts for two-thirds of US export demand. Even if other buyers show up in China’s absence, they will not purchase the volume of soybeans China has, and our weekly sales will decline. This is a classic example of demand being front-loaded. It is highly unlikely our soybean sales will completely halt though, which makes it difficult to predict how much our export demand will change. Domestic soybean consumption remains steady though and will help absorb some of the lost export demand. The most uncertainty on the global soybean balance sheets is what will happen in Argentina and if they will need imports to help cover domestic losses.
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