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Grain Comments: 02/02/2023

Good Morning:

We are starting to see a difference of opinion on the US soybean export program. US unshipped soybean sales are up 42% from last year and are the second highest on record for this time of year. Cumulative US soybean sales also remain well above the pace needed to meet current USDA yearly projections. While this is positive news, the question is how much future demand we will see. The Brazilian soybean harvest is advancing and soon we will see their new crop soybeans flowing into the global market. There is little doubt this will cut into demand for US soybeans. The most interest is what will happen to Chinese demand which accounts for two-thirds of US export demand. Even if other buyers show up in China’s absence, they will not purchase the volume of soybeans China has, and our weekly sales will decline. This is a classic example of demand being front-loaded. It is highly unlikely our soybean sales will completely halt though, which makes it difficult to predict how much our export demand will change. Domestic soybean consumption remains steady though and will help absorb some of the lost export demand. The most uncertainty on the global soybean balance sheets is what will happen in Argentina and if they will need imports to help cover domestic losses.

Highlights

  • India to hold biodiesel blend at 35%
  • Chinese hog numbers rising
  • US Plains still in drought
  • Weekly ethanol production +112,000 barrels
  • Weekly ethanol stocks -635,000 barrels
  • US housing values -0.6% in Nov
  • Housing values have declined 6 straight months
  • Market debating need for risk premium
  • Little additional premium needed at this time
  • US diesel supply historically low

Corn

  • Dec ethanol grind 425 mbu
  • Weekly ethanol corn use 106 mbu
  • New crop demand remains light
  • Farm sales on old crop increase
  • Input costs may lower EU acres

Soybeans

  • December crush 187 mbu
  • China continues to buy from Brazil
  • Soy product demand remains high, mainly meal
  • Total soy demand better than expected
  • Soy demand likely front loaded

Have a great day!

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