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Grain Comments: 02/03/2023

Good Morning:

Trade is starting to position itself for the February WASDE report that will be released next Wednesday the 8th. Typically, we see little interest on the February data as we have not yet reached a point where the US growing season is a factor and South America is the focal point of the market. This year is expected to be little different, but that said, trade has been heavily vested in all balance sheets updates this year given the tight US stocks to use we have seen. Trade was surprised last month when the USDA cut production of both corn and soybeans in balance sheets. Production is now set, and attention will focus fully on demand. Corn exports remain sluggish and are thought to be 100 million bu too high. Trade also believes ethanol demand is overstated by 50 million bu. Feed demand is questionable and may also be too high at this time. Exports also still appear overestimated by 100 million bu. Soybean demand has been better this year, but exports may still be overestimated by 50 million bu. The most interest this month will fall on the global side though, mainly what the USDA does with the Argentine crops following recent rains that were seen as favorable for crop growth.


Highlights

  • Economists question commodity bull market
  • No major Chinese bookings this week
  • US dollar again showing strength
  • Total SAM production much larger than last year
  • Products supporting commodity futures
  • Low water again a concern on US rivers
  • Draft restrictions again in place
  • Feb WASDE next Wednesday
  • Smaller US demand expected
  • Most interest on Argentine crops


Corn

  • Ukraine crop est -1.8 mmt from USDA
  • Ukraine corridor exports reach 19 mmt
  • High US spring exports predicted
  • Sales may struggle to reach USDA estimate
  • YTD ethanol demand -5% from expectations


Soybeans

  • Brazil offers 80 cents under US
  • Brazil soybeans at 13-month low
  • Meal from Brazil -$40/mt than US
  • US crush demand -3.1% from expectations
  • Record crush needed for rest of year

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