Good morning.
New week of ag trade is mostly lower this morning to get Monday started, with all three of the corn, beans and wheat trading in the red and having seen small gap-lower opens to start the overnight session yesterday. Meanwhile, soybean oil has scored new rally highs this morning and is trading at its highest level since the day contract highs were made earlier last summer. Corn futures to start the week are trading 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 2-3 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 1-2 cents lower also.
Friday afternoon’s CFTC Commitment of Traders report for the week ending February 3rd show managed money traders in the week were buyers of 3,264 contracts of corn (-68,786), buyers of 11,511 contracts of soybeans (+28,832) and buyers of 12,988 contracts of Chicago wheat (-81,755); in the soy products, funds were buyers of 10,061 contracts of meal (-21,737) and sellers of 3,493 contracts of oil (+9,841).
For tomorrow’s February WASDE update, traders according to Bloomberg see US ending stocks coming in at 2.215 bil bu, which would be down just slightly from the 2.227 bil seen last month; soybean stocks are seen at 348 mil bu vs 350 mil last month, and wheat stocks are seen at 918 mil bu vs 926 mil last month. At the world level, corn stocks were seen at 291.1 MMTs vs 290.9 last month, soybean stocks were seen at 125.4 MMTs vs 124.4 and wheat stocks are seen at 278.6 MMTs vs 278.3.
While there won’t be any production updates made for the US, traders see the USDA adjusting Brazilian corn and soybean production higher to 132.3 MMTs and 179.2 MMTs respectively. For Argentina though, it’s expected that slight cuts will occur, with corn production seen dropping 0.2 MMTs to 52.8 MMTs and soybean production dropping 0.4 MMTs to 48.1 MMTs.
In the equity world this week, traders will likely have their attention first on the delayed January jobs report that is now set to be released on Wednesday, and then on the looming shutdown of the DHS. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said recently that Dems will not support passage of DHS funding unless reforms to ICE are included, which was largely the issue at the center of the hold up on the last funding package. Stock index futures are mostly quietly lower this morning, the dollar index is lower, and the metals markets are higher.
According to private South American firm Patria AgroNegocios, soybean harvest progress across Brazil as of last week has reached 17% complete, which is not quite double the pace seen last year. The group didn’t give a reason for the increase in pace but did mention yields have been favorable so far across almost all of the country and that rains in the north and north-central regions were limiting progress to an extent there.
Soybean oil futures are higher this morning and have scored new highs for the move on headlines that product from the US will be allowed into India duty free as part of a new trade deal with the US that would also see tariffs on Indian goods dropped from 50% to 18%. India is the world’s number one importer of vegoils, taking some roughly 16 million tons annually.
Private analysts in Ukraine have sharply lowered their export estimates for the country’s grains in the current marketing year, lowering their forecast by some 10% from a month prior due to shipment pace that has been increasingly slowing due to ongoing Russian attacks on infrastructure and other logistics. Ending stocks forecasts were subsequently adjusted higher also, being raised from 6.8 MMTs to 11.5 MMTs.
Midwest weather looks to be on the quieter side for the first half of the week this week, with models in fair agreement on a warm/dry forecast for most of the region the next few days, with moisture chances then showing back up for the south and southeast later in the week. The big feature to watch though for the week is a more organized low-pressure system that the models are picking up on Friday night into Saturday, which looks to be the best source of moisture for the largest area. There isn’t great agreement on location/timing between the two today, which will need monitoring the next several days.
Models are wetter through the weekend for most of Argentina and are seeing several rounds of precipitation now for the area over the next 10 days. At times, the rains will likely be spotty in coverage, but overall, the pattern shift should bode well for developing crops here. Heat will likely be absent the next 10 days as well, which also helps in limiting further stress. For Brazil, models are still showing moisture this morning through the same corridor that has been seeing it for now weeks, with areas to the west and southwest and then also to the east/northeast staying on the drier side.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 02-09-2026
Good morning.
New week of ag trade is mostly lower this morning to get Monday started, with all three of the corn, beans and wheat trading in the red and having seen small gap-lower opens to start the overnight session yesterday. Meanwhile, soybean oil has scored new rally highs this morning and is trading at its highest level since the day contract highs were made earlier last summer. Corn futures to start the week are trading 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 2-3 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 1-2 cents lower also.
Friday afternoon’s CFTC Commitment of Traders report for the week ending February 3rd show managed money traders in the week were buyers of 3,264 contracts of corn (-68,786), buyers of 11,511 contracts of soybeans (+28,832) and buyers of 12,988 contracts of Chicago wheat (-81,755); in the soy products, funds were buyers of 10,061 contracts of meal (-21,737) and sellers of 3,493 contracts of oil (+9,841).
For tomorrow’s February WASDE update, traders according to Bloomberg see US ending stocks coming in at 2.215 bil bu, which would be down just slightly from the 2.227 bil seen last month; soybean stocks are seen at 348 mil bu vs 350 mil last month, and wheat stocks are seen at 918 mil bu vs 926 mil last month. At the world level, corn stocks were seen at 291.1 MMTs vs 290.9 last month, soybean stocks were seen at 125.4 MMTs vs 124.4 and wheat stocks are seen at 278.6 MMTs vs 278.3.
While there won’t be any production updates made for the US, traders see the USDA adjusting Brazilian corn and soybean production higher to 132.3 MMTs and 179.2 MMTs respectively. For Argentina though, it’s expected that slight cuts will occur, with corn production seen dropping 0.2 MMTs to 52.8 MMTs and soybean production dropping 0.4 MMTs to 48.1 MMTs.
In the equity world this week, traders will likely have their attention first on the delayed January jobs report that is now set to be released on Wednesday, and then on the looming shutdown of the DHS. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said recently that Dems will not support passage of DHS funding unless reforms to ICE are included, which was largely the issue at the center of the hold up on the last funding package. Stock index futures are mostly quietly lower this morning, the dollar index is lower, and the metals markets are higher.
According to private South American firm Patria AgroNegocios, soybean harvest progress across Brazil as of last week has reached 17% complete, which is not quite double the pace seen last year. The group didn’t give a reason for the increase in pace but did mention yields have been favorable so far across almost all of the country and that rains in the north and north-central regions were limiting progress to an extent there.
Soybean oil futures are higher this morning and have scored new highs for the move on headlines that product from the US will be allowed into India duty free as part of a new trade deal with the US that would also see tariffs on Indian goods dropped from 50% to 18%. India is the world’s number one importer of vegoils, taking some roughly 16 million tons annually.
Private analysts in Ukraine have sharply lowered their export estimates for the country’s grains in the current marketing year, lowering their forecast by some 10% from a month prior due to shipment pace that has been increasingly slowing due to ongoing Russian attacks on infrastructure and other logistics. Ending stocks forecasts were subsequently adjusted higher also, being raised from 6.8 MMTs to 11.5 MMTs.
Midwest weather looks to be on the quieter side for the first half of the week this week, with models in fair agreement on a warm/dry forecast for most of the region the next few days, with moisture chances then showing back up for the south and southeast later in the week. The big feature to watch though for the week is a more organized low-pressure system that the models are picking up on Friday night into Saturday, which looks to be the best source of moisture for the largest area. There isn’t great agreement on location/timing between the two today, which will need monitoring the next several days.
Models are wetter through the weekend for most of Argentina and are seeing several rounds of precipitation now for the area over the next 10 days. At times, the rains will likely be spotty in coverage, but overall, the pattern shift should bode well for developing crops here. Heat will likely be absent the next 10 days as well, which also helps in limiting further stress. For Brazil, models are still showing moisture this morning through the same corridor that has been seeing it for now weeks, with areas to the west and southwest and then also to the east/northeast staying on the drier side.
Have a great day.
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