Good morning.
Commodity markets are quietly mixed generally across the board this morning in what has been one of the more subdued overnight sessions of trade markets have seen in some time now. Ahead of what is typically one of the more docile supply and demand updates of the season, corn futures are trading unchanged to a penny higher, soybean futures are trading 2-3 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading unchanged to a penny lower.
For this morning’s February WASDE update, traders according to Bloomberg see US ending stocks coming in at 2.215 bil bu, which would be down just slightly from the 2.227 bil seen last month; soybean stocks are seen at 348 mil bu vs 350 mil last month, and wheat stocks are seen at 918 mil bu vs 926 mil last month. At the world level, corn stocks are seen at 291.1 MMTs vs 290.9 last month, soybean stocks are seen at 125.4 MMTs vs 124.4 and wheat stocks are seen at 278.6 MMTs vs 278.3.
While there won’t be any production updates made for the US, traders see the USDA adjusting Brazilian corn and soybean production higher to 132.3 MMTs and 179.2 MMTs respectively. For Argentina though, it’s expected that slight cuts will occur, with corn production seen dropping 0.2 MMTs to 52.8 MMTs and soybean production dropping 0.4 MMTs to 48.1 MMTs. The report is due out at its normal 11am central time.
The EIA recently released monthly biofuel feedstock usage data for November, which continued to show year-over-year declines for soybean oil. The total for Nov was seen at just 930 mil lbs., which was the lowest monthly figure since last April and down some 22% from November of 2024. Cumulative usage through the first four months of the marketing year now stands at 4.030 bil lbs., which is down 15% from the same period in 2024/25 vs the USDA currently forecasting total marketing year bean oil for biofuel usage at 14.8 bil lbs., which is up some 26% from 2024/25.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday that Treasury staff visited China last week “to strengthen channels of communication” between the two sides ahead of what is being described as the next high-level meeting between he and Chinese vice premier He Lifeng. Details on exactly when or where this meeting is expected to happen are not available this morning, but sources say it would likely come ahead of a Trump/Xi summit in China that is being planned for April.
Staying with China, the group’s Ag Ministry released monthly supply and demand data earlier on Tuesday that showed little change in estimates from the previous month; of note, corn production was unchanged on the month at 301.24 MMTs and soybean imports were also unchanged at 95.8 MMTs.
The French Ag Ministry also released monthly crop data earlier on Tuesday, which showed farmers there are expected to plant 4.6 mil hectares of soft winter wheat in the 2026/27 season, which would be nearly unchanged from their last estimate but up nearly 3% from the previous season.
Weather models are little changed this morning from yesterday’s runs for the Midwest the rest of the week; there looks to be scattered rains through the south and southeast Tuesday night into Wednesday, but then a bigger, more organized system is still seen for the area Sunday into Monday the first part of next week. From the two, rainfall totals look to range from a few tenths to 4+” in parts of OK/AR. Temperature-wise, nothing new also this morning as the models continue to show mostly warmer-than-normal air lingering across a lot of the central part of the US at least into the middle of next week.
This morning’s EU model run is slightly drier through southern Argentina the rest of the week this week but still sees scattered precipitation and has not gone completely dry. Rains are still seen then into next week and the general wetter pattern compared to recent weeks remains mostly still in the forecast. There are signs that rains are starting to lessen up a bit in the wet corridor through central Brazil over the next two weeks, but otherwise, the forecast here is also again little changed this morning.
Have a great day!
Grain Comments: 02-10-2026
Good morning.
Commodity markets are quietly mixed generally across the board this morning in what has been one of the more subdued overnight sessions of trade markets have seen in some time now. Ahead of what is typically one of the more docile supply and demand updates of the season, corn futures are trading unchanged to a penny higher, soybean futures are trading 2-3 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading unchanged to a penny lower.
For this morning’s February WASDE update, traders according to Bloomberg see US ending stocks coming in at 2.215 bil bu, which would be down just slightly from the 2.227 bil seen last month; soybean stocks are seen at 348 mil bu vs 350 mil last month, and wheat stocks are seen at 918 mil bu vs 926 mil last month. At the world level, corn stocks are seen at 291.1 MMTs vs 290.9 last month, soybean stocks are seen at 125.4 MMTs vs 124.4 and wheat stocks are seen at 278.6 MMTs vs 278.3.
While there won’t be any production updates made for the US, traders see the USDA adjusting Brazilian corn and soybean production higher to 132.3 MMTs and 179.2 MMTs respectively. For Argentina though, it’s expected that slight cuts will occur, with corn production seen dropping 0.2 MMTs to 52.8 MMTs and soybean production dropping 0.4 MMTs to 48.1 MMTs. The report is due out at its normal 11am central time.
The EIA recently released monthly biofuel feedstock usage data for November, which continued to show year-over-year declines for soybean oil. The total for Nov was seen at just 930 mil lbs., which was the lowest monthly figure since last April and down some 22% from November of 2024. Cumulative usage through the first four months of the marketing year now stands at 4.030 bil lbs., which is down 15% from the same period in 2024/25 vs the USDA currently forecasting total marketing year bean oil for biofuel usage at 14.8 bil lbs., which is up some 26% from 2024/25.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday that Treasury staff visited China last week “to strengthen channels of communication” between the two sides ahead of what is being described as the next high-level meeting between he and Chinese vice premier He Lifeng. Details on exactly when or where this meeting is expected to happen are not available this morning, but sources say it would likely come ahead of a Trump/Xi summit in China that is being planned for April.
Staying with China, the group’s Ag Ministry released monthly supply and demand data earlier on Tuesday that showed little change in estimates from the previous month; of note, corn production was unchanged on the month at 301.24 MMTs and soybean imports were also unchanged at 95.8 MMTs.
The French Ag Ministry also released monthly crop data earlier on Tuesday, which showed farmers there are expected to plant 4.6 mil hectares of soft winter wheat in the 2026/27 season, which would be nearly unchanged from their last estimate but up nearly 3% from the previous season.
Weather models are little changed this morning from yesterday’s runs for the Midwest the rest of the week; there looks to be scattered rains through the south and southeast Tuesday night into Wednesday, but then a bigger, more organized system is still seen for the area Sunday into Monday the first part of next week. From the two, rainfall totals look to range from a few tenths to 4+” in parts of OK/AR. Temperature-wise, nothing new also this morning as the models continue to show mostly warmer-than-normal air lingering across a lot of the central part of the US at least into the middle of next week.
This morning’s EU model run is slightly drier through southern Argentina the rest of the week this week but still sees scattered precipitation and has not gone completely dry. Rains are still seen then into next week and the general wetter pattern compared to recent weeks remains mostly still in the forecast. There are signs that rains are starting to lessen up a bit in the wet corridor through central Brazil over the next two weeks, but otherwise, the forecast here is also again little changed this morning.
Have a great day!
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