Grain Comments: 02/10/2023

Good Morning!

Overnight volumes remain robust heading into the end of the week with the grains mostly rebounding off technical support; all crops will need acreage as well heading into spring, with none likely to give up ground.

Strong precipitation fell in the ECB yesterday with conditions looking drier for the weekend, picking up again in the first half of next week through both the 6-10 and 11-15 day period. Temps look cooler west/warmer east going forward.

Argentina was dry again yesterday with chances on tap Sunday through Tues-day, but the forecast dry overall going forward. Brazil saw good rains center/ north with strong coverage seen through Tuesday and again in the 6-10 day.

We are starting to see a difference in opinion on South American weather. After several rain events in Argentina conditions have again turned dry, and soil moisture is again being lost. Crop ratings did improve on the recent rainfall but much more will be needed to prevent losses from again taking place. This is making it very difficult to accurately predict the country’s corn and soybean production potential. While some yield loss has undoubtedly taken place, how much is uncertain and hard to determine give the wide range of crop reports we are receiving. Brazil has also started to see drier conditions recently, but these have been welcomed. The Brazilian soybean harvest was slow to start due to ongoing rains but now that these are ending progress can be made. This is apparent from soybean basis in Brazil which has collapsed this week as new crop supplies make their way into the pipeline. Soybean harvest in Brazil is now approaching the five-year average which is good considering the size of the crop being harvested. These drier conditions are also favorable for getting the Safrinha crop seeded which has been a concern as well. Given the full soil moisture Brazil has some analysts have already started to increase their Brazilian corn production estimates.

Have a great day!