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Grain Comments: 02/13/2023

More attention is starting to fall on the US share of the global market. Several weeks ago, it was shown how the United States had its share of the Chinese soybean market decline to less than 32%. We are now seeing Chin and Brazil build trade relations which will push that country ahead of the US on global corn trade as well. China is already taking delivery of old crop corn from Brazil and with a larger 2023 crop will continues to expand import volumes from that source. This will make the US more of a residual corn supplier, same as it is with soybeans. This loss of Chinese trade is the main reason Ag export revenue is expected to be down nearly $45 billion this year. While the US is seeing a decline in exports of whole corn and soybeans, there are hopes we will see elevated product demand to compensate for it. The main exports being monitored are beef, pork, and renewable fuels. Exports of these products are down as well from last year’s record pace but there are indications demand will increase, especially if the Argentine crops are as small are some forecasters believe and their exports decline.

 

Highlights

* US mortgage demand rising

* Global shippers see slowing demand

* Trade expects Black Sea disruptions

* Escalating fighting in Ukraine expected

* Rains in Argentina too late for several areas

* Brazil benefits from recent rains

* US 2022 imported goods at $536.8 billion

* US 2022 imports +6.3% from 2021

* US/Chinese relations continue to diminish

* Brail to further pressure US market share

 

Corn

* March corn gained 1 ½ cents last week

* Brazil to cover smaller Argentine crop

* US export forecast too high

* World corn supply -9 mmt from 2022

* Global feed demand is lower

 

Soybeans

* March soybeans were 10 ½ cents higher last week

* Brazil exports to offset Arg losses

* Record Feb Brazil exports likely

* Soy oil demand remains very low

* World soy supply largest in 5 years

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