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Grain Comments: 02-13-2024

Good morning.

The CBOT has again been choppy in the overnight session, as light volume due to multiple global holidays keeps the trade quiet. Headlines today will likely be centered on the financial markets, as new inflation is to be digested. Corn futures are up 1-2 cents, soybean futures are up 1/2 to a penny, and the Chicago wheat market is down 2-3 cents. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down around $1/ton, while soybean oil is trading 50-60 points higher. Outside markets mixed also, crude oil futures are up 50 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 50 points, and the US$ index is down 10 points.

Ag markets are quiet with small trading ranges so far in the overnight session. Soybeans started last night down a 1/2 cent to a penny and 1/2 and have just recently been able to trade higher.

March corn futures continue to make new lows and did so again yesterday. RSI has been at or below 30 for nearly a week now, meaning the market is oversold.

Debate rages as to the size of South American corn and soybean crops. Yesterday, AgRural raised their estimate for Brazil’s second corn crop by nearly 5 mmt’s, to 91.2 mmt’s.

The group cited an increase in the planting window for the crop due to both an improvement in weather conditions, as well as the rapid advancement of soybean harvest, as the reason for their increase.

The firm also estimated soybean harvest at 23% complete, compared to 17% by this date last year. While drought has negatively impacted yield, it has also sped along the harvest.

On the other side of the world, the Russian Ag Minister proposed raising the export quota on grain exports for 2024 to 28 million tons, up from the current 24 million ton level.

The French Ag Ministry announced Tuesday that farmers had planted 6.2 mil hectares of winter grains as of Feb 1. That number is down 7.5% from last year, and 6.1% below the 5-year average.

The Ukraine Farm Ministry announced that they estimate 2024 grain seedings will be down 4% from last year, with corn acres specifically down around 9%.

Malaysian palm oil stocks were seen down 12% in their monthly stocks report, at 2.02 mmt’s. This is the lowest level since last April and below expectations.

Weather models are in good agreement on the next 10 days. Overnight runs trended slightly drier into Feb 23rd but see rains returning in the 15-day period for Argentina. Monsoon season continues to perform normally in Northern Brazil.

Have a great day!

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