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Grain Comments: 02-14-2024

Good morning. Happy Valentine’s Day.

Grain markets are celebrating by putting on their brightest red colors so far to start the day. Selling resumed yesterday; corn and soybean futures have made new lows as of this writing. And Chicago wheat is at its lowest level since January 18th. Corn futures are 2-3 cents lower; soybean futures are 7-8 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is down 10-15 cents. Products are lower, soybean meal is down $1.5-2.5/ton, and soybean oil is down around 10 points. Outside markets are retracing some of yesterday’s moves for the most part; crude oil futures are 10 cents/bbl higher, the Dow Jones index is up 100 points, and the US$ index is down 5 points.

Today’s Reports: EIA Weekly Ethanol Production/Energy Stocks; US PPI

The CBOT is again seeing selling pressure in the overnight session, while fundamentals remain mostly the same. Markets seem stuck in a sideways/lower pattern.

A survey of 21 Bloomberg analysts showed the average guess for corn planted acres in 2024 from the USDA Outlook Forum was 91.6 mil acres. If accurate, this would be down 3 mil acres from 2023.

Ending stocks for corn were seen at 2.493 bil bu, which would be some 321 mil bu more than 23/24.

The same group estimated soybean planted acres in 2024 at 86.7 mil. This would be 3.1 mil more acres than in 2023. Ending stocks for soybeans were seen at 420 mil bu. USDA currently sees 23/24 ending stocks at 315 mil bu.

Traders see today’s ethanol production numbers being slightly higher than last week; the average guess is 1.050 mil bbls, compared with 1.033 mil last week.

Ethanol stocks are seen at 25.146 mil bbls, which would be up from 24.779 mil last week.

Traders see tomorrow’s NOPA soybean crush report for January, due out tomorrow, at 189.928 mil bu’s. This would be down 2.8% from December’s record but would be up 6.1% vs January of 2023.

EU soft wheat exports hit 18.65 mmt’s as of February 2nd, up 0.41 mmt’s from the previous report. Report accuracy is questioned, as not only does the data lag, but it is seen as incomplete.

Indian security forces repelled farmer protesters for a second straight day Wednesday, as tens of thousands of Indian farmers march toward New Delhi. The farmers are demanding minimum prices on a range of crops.

In the Middle east, Iran claimed two explosions along its main north/south gas pipeline were caused by sabotage on Wednesday. Authorities also reported that disruptions in supplies were minimal and would be back to normal by Wednesday night.

Argentina sees dry weather for the next 10 days, but extreme heat is not seen returning. Another round of storms/showers are forecast in the two-week period.

Have a great day!

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