Good morning.
Ag futures are lower to get the day started, with profit taking noted across the board as traders get ready to settle into a long, three-day holiday weekend. Other than short covering, which we still feel has been the main driver of the current wheat rally, it’s been optimism surrounding China that’s produced this week’s rally, and we just simply have no way of knowing today whether that injection of premium is warranted. If China makes good on the additional 8 MMTs, sure; but if not, we see the fundamentals as saying beans are probably overpriced right now, which is why a lot of advisory services have been pushing farmer sales. Corn futures to get Friday rolling are trading 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 5-9 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 6-7 cents lower.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, in their weekly crop update, made no production updates to either the corn or soybean crop in Argentina despite, in the case of soybeans, another sizeable fall in condition ratings. Data showed the amount of the crop rated in the poor category jumped from 25% last week to 32% this week, as rains are becoming critical. For corn, conditions were mostly steady from last week, with just a single percent changing from the excellent category to the normal category.
Ukraine’s state rail company on Thursday said grain shipments to ports were down nearly 20% from the year prior at just 2.4 MMTs due to ongoing Russian attacks on port and energy infrastructure. The group added things had improved a bit so far to start February, with shipments through the first ten days of the month up about 3% from the first ten days in January.
Not that its necessarily new news, but the Grain Industry of Western Australia said in a report on Thursday that western Australis had produced the second highest wheat crop on record in 2025, with production seen at 13.3 MMTs. Total grain production in the region was seen at 27.35 MMTs, which was a new record.
Private Russian consultancy IKAR on Friday said it sees Russia’s 2026 wheat crop coming in at 91 MMTs, which is up 3 MMTs from the group’s previous estimate. The country’s total grain crop is seen at 141.5 MMTs, which if accurate, would be up around 4% from production seen in the 2025/26 season.
Data from Brazil’s census Bureau on Thursday showed Q4 cattle slaughter in the country up more than 13% from the same period in 2024, which if accurate, would take total slaughter in 2025 to a record 42.3 million head. Sources say strong Chinese demand drove the acceleration in slaughter and also put Brazil ahead of the US as the world’s biggest beef producer.
According to weekly data from the USDA, barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending February 7th rebounded to 266k tons, which was up nearly 41% on the week prior; corn shipments at 110k tons were up 26%, and soybean shipments at 145k tons were up nearly 60%. STL barge freight rates were quoted at $24.22, which was down 44 cents from the week prior.
President Trump confirmed this week that he would be traveling to Beijing in early April for meetings with President Xi Jinping and that Xi would make a follow-up trip after to the US signaled a constructive tone and cautious optimism ahead of scheduled talks between Treasury Secretary Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in the weeks ahead.
I have talked about it all week, but the big weekend forecast feature for the Midwest continues to be the coming storm system for the southeast and southern part of the region, which looks to start in the Plains tonight/early tomorrow morning and then work east through the weekend and into the early morning hours on Monday. Models this morning are like yesterday on totals, with the bulk of the area seeing a likely half inch to an inch, while a heavier 1-3″ is possible through parts of MO/AR and other western areas.
The GFS is wetter through the weekend and into the first part of next week for Argentina than the EU is, but both show generally the same outlook this morning in seeing precipitation continuing for the northern part of the country and into southern Brazil through the weekend and into next week, while central Brazil goes drier for a few days and southern Argentina sees spotty rains that likely improve into the back half of next week. Like we talked about yesterday, it’s the development of this moisture for central Argentina that traders will most be watching as we get into next week.
Have a great weekend! As a reminder, there will be no CBOT ag markets Sunday night or Monday, with trade then resuming like normal at 7pm central time Monday evening.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 02-13-2026
Good morning.
Ag futures are lower to get the day started, with profit taking noted across the board as traders get ready to settle into a long, three-day holiday weekend. Other than short covering, which we still feel has been the main driver of the current wheat rally, it’s been optimism surrounding China that’s produced this week’s rally, and we just simply have no way of knowing today whether that injection of premium is warranted. If China makes good on the additional 8 MMTs, sure; but if not, we see the fundamentals as saying beans are probably overpriced right now, which is why a lot of advisory services have been pushing farmer sales. Corn futures to get Friday rolling are trading 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 5-9 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 6-7 cents lower.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, in their weekly crop update, made no production updates to either the corn or soybean crop in Argentina despite, in the case of soybeans, another sizeable fall in condition ratings. Data showed the amount of the crop rated in the poor category jumped from 25% last week to 32% this week, as rains are becoming critical. For corn, conditions were mostly steady from last week, with just a single percent changing from the excellent category to the normal category.
Ukraine’s state rail company on Thursday said grain shipments to ports were down nearly 20% from the year prior at just 2.4 MMTs due to ongoing Russian attacks on port and energy infrastructure. The group added things had improved a bit so far to start February, with shipments through the first ten days of the month up about 3% from the first ten days in January.
Not that its necessarily new news, but the Grain Industry of Western Australia said in a report on Thursday that western Australis had produced the second highest wheat crop on record in 2025, with production seen at 13.3 MMTs. Total grain production in the region was seen at 27.35 MMTs, which was a new record.
Private Russian consultancy IKAR on Friday said it sees Russia’s 2026 wheat crop coming in at 91 MMTs, which is up 3 MMTs from the group’s previous estimate. The country’s total grain crop is seen at 141.5 MMTs, which if accurate, would be up around 4% from production seen in the 2025/26 season.
Data from Brazil’s census Bureau on Thursday showed Q4 cattle slaughter in the country up more than 13% from the same period in 2024, which if accurate, would take total slaughter in 2025 to a record 42.3 million head. Sources say strong Chinese demand drove the acceleration in slaughter and also put Brazil ahead of the US as the world’s biggest beef producer.
According to weekly data from the USDA, barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending February 7th rebounded to 266k tons, which was up nearly 41% on the week prior; corn shipments at 110k tons were up 26%, and soybean shipments at 145k tons were up nearly 60%. STL barge freight rates were quoted at $24.22, which was down 44 cents from the week prior.
President Trump confirmed this week that he would be traveling to Beijing in early April for meetings with President Xi Jinping and that Xi would make a follow-up trip after to the US signaled a constructive tone and cautious optimism ahead of scheduled talks between Treasury Secretary Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in the weeks ahead.
I have talked about it all week, but the big weekend forecast feature for the Midwest continues to be the coming storm system for the southeast and southern part of the region, which looks to start in the Plains tonight/early tomorrow morning and then work east through the weekend and into the early morning hours on Monday. Models this morning are like yesterday on totals, with the bulk of the area seeing a likely half inch to an inch, while a heavier 1-3″ is possible through parts of MO/AR and other western areas.
The GFS is wetter through the weekend and into the first part of next week for Argentina than the EU is, but both show generally the same outlook this morning in seeing precipitation continuing for the northern part of the country and into southern Brazil through the weekend and into next week, while central Brazil goes drier for a few days and southern Argentina sees spotty rains that likely improve into the back half of next week. Like we talked about yesterday, it’s the development of this moisture for central Argentina that traders will most be watching as we get into next week.
Have a great weekend! As a reminder, there will be no CBOT ag markets Sunday night or Monday, with trade then resuming like normal at 7pm central time Monday evening.
Have a great day.
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