Good morning.
New week of ag trade has started much like last week ended at the CBOT, with corrective downside momentum remaining in place at least early on this morning to drive prices into the red. After being the leader to the upside, a lot of the week last week, it’s the wheat market the last couple days that has now become the downside leader, which remains the case this morning. Corn futures to start Monday are trading 2-3 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 1-2 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 5-9 cents lower.
Friday afternoon’s weekly CFTC commitment of traders report showed a massive week of fund buying in the beans in the week ended February 10th, as managed money traders bought some 94,316 contracts, making them now net-long 123,148 contracts; funds were also buyers of 20,576 contracts of corn (-48,210) and sellers of 3,901 contracts of Chicago wheat (-85,655). In soy products, funds were buyers of 7,413 contracts of meal 9-14,325) and buyers of 23,252 contracts of oil (33,093). Of note, this was the largest week of fund buying in the beans since May of last year.
NOPA is set to release updated monthly soybean crush data later this morning for the month of January at 11am central time; traders see the report showing US crush in the month at 218.52 mil bu, which would be down from the December figure but still the third highest monthly figure ever and would be a new record for the month. Soybean oil stocks as of the end of the month are estimated at 1.71 bil lbs., which would be the largest figure in some 20 months going back to 2024.
According to private consultancies in Brazil, soybean harvest in the country as of late last week is estimated to be some just over 20% complete, which continues to be just slightly behind last year. Rains over the last week have slowed operations a bit, but a drier forecast into the back half of the month should allow for pace to pick back up in the weeks ahead. Safrinha corn planting is estimated around 31% complete, which is about 5% behind the same date last year.
Potentially helping the US wheat rally last week was news that FOB export prices in Russia for the second half of March were quoted at $233/metric ton, which would be up $2/ton on the week prior according to private consultancy IKAR. The group added that weather had significantly impacted shipments from the country’s southern ports in January, and that it had also caused problems so far through the first half of February.
Amid ongoing backlash from its farmers over new trade agreements with the US, sources late last week said India had permitted limited exports of wheat from the country, easing restrictions that have been in place for more than three years as stocks are high and production in the coming season is expected to again be large. A statement by the country’s food ministry indicates the government cleared outbound sales of 2.5 MMTs and also an additional 500k MTs of wheat products.
Following jumps in trading volume the last couple weeks, activity could see a slight slowdown this week as China will be out on its week-long Lunar New Year celebration and Brazil will also be out the back half of the week for its annual Carnival festival.
On the geopolitical front this week, the US and Iran are scheduled to hold lower-level, more indirect talks in Geneva later today, though there’s little indication that any sort of progress is expected, while the US is also set to mediate discussions between Russia and Ukraine, which too are expected to take place in Geneva later this week.
Weather models are in pretty good agreement this week for the Midwest, with both continuing to show well above normal daytime highs throughout the Midwest into the end of the week before things cool back off a bit, while precipitation is expected in a couple waves. The first, slated for Wednesday/Thursday, will impact mostly just the northern tier of the country and then the Great Lakes region and Canada, while the second has less model agreement but is seen more Saturday/Sunday and is expected to impact more the southern Midwest and southeast.
Following good weekend rains across much of Argentina, models this morning are downright wet for the country the rest of the week this week, and are forecasting several rounds of precipitation through the main ag regions over the next 5-7 days. Totals are seen raging from a half inch to upwards of 4-5″, with the heavier totals expected to be fairly widespread throughout a lot of the central part of the country. Meanwhile, south-central Brazil will see ongoing light moisture, but totals will be light and variable throughout the week this and through the weekend before possibly picking back up a bit then the middle of next week.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 02-17-2026
Good morning.
New week of ag trade has started much like last week ended at the CBOT, with corrective downside momentum remaining in place at least early on this morning to drive prices into the red. After being the leader to the upside, a lot of the week last week, it’s the wheat market the last couple days that has now become the downside leader, which remains the case this morning. Corn futures to start Monday are trading 2-3 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 1-2 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 5-9 cents lower.
Friday afternoon’s weekly CFTC commitment of traders report showed a massive week of fund buying in the beans in the week ended February 10th, as managed money traders bought some 94,316 contracts, making them now net-long 123,148 contracts; funds were also buyers of 20,576 contracts of corn (-48,210) and sellers of 3,901 contracts of Chicago wheat (-85,655). In soy products, funds were buyers of 7,413 contracts of meal 9-14,325) and buyers of 23,252 contracts of oil (33,093). Of note, this was the largest week of fund buying in the beans since May of last year.
NOPA is set to release updated monthly soybean crush data later this morning for the month of January at 11am central time; traders see the report showing US crush in the month at 218.52 mil bu, which would be down from the December figure but still the third highest monthly figure ever and would be a new record for the month. Soybean oil stocks as of the end of the month are estimated at 1.71 bil lbs., which would be the largest figure in some 20 months going back to 2024.
According to private consultancies in Brazil, soybean harvest in the country as of late last week is estimated to be some just over 20% complete, which continues to be just slightly behind last year. Rains over the last week have slowed operations a bit, but a drier forecast into the back half of the month should allow for pace to pick back up in the weeks ahead. Safrinha corn planting is estimated around 31% complete, which is about 5% behind the same date last year.
Potentially helping the US wheat rally last week was news that FOB export prices in Russia for the second half of March were quoted at $233/metric ton, which would be up $2/ton on the week prior according to private consultancy IKAR. The group added that weather had significantly impacted shipments from the country’s southern ports in January, and that it had also caused problems so far through the first half of February.
Amid ongoing backlash from its farmers over new trade agreements with the US, sources late last week said India had permitted limited exports of wheat from the country, easing restrictions that have been in place for more than three years as stocks are high and production in the coming season is expected to again be large. A statement by the country’s food ministry indicates the government cleared outbound sales of 2.5 MMTs and also an additional 500k MTs of wheat products.
Following jumps in trading volume the last couple weeks, activity could see a slight slowdown this week as China will be out on its week-long Lunar New Year celebration and Brazil will also be out the back half of the week for its annual Carnival festival.
On the geopolitical front this week, the US and Iran are scheduled to hold lower-level, more indirect talks in Geneva later today, though there’s little indication that any sort of progress is expected, while the US is also set to mediate discussions between Russia and Ukraine, which too are expected to take place in Geneva later this week.
Weather models are in pretty good agreement this week for the Midwest, with both continuing to show well above normal daytime highs throughout the Midwest into the end of the week before things cool back off a bit, while precipitation is expected in a couple waves. The first, slated for Wednesday/Thursday, will impact mostly just the northern tier of the country and then the Great Lakes region and Canada, while the second has less model agreement but is seen more Saturday/Sunday and is expected to impact more the southern Midwest and southeast.
Following good weekend rains across much of Argentina, models this morning are downright wet for the country the rest of the week this week, and are forecasting several rounds of precipitation through the main ag regions over the next 5-7 days. Totals are seen raging from a half inch to upwards of 4-5″, with the heavier totals expected to be fairly widespread throughout a lot of the central part of the country. Meanwhile, south-central Brazil will see ongoing light moisture, but totals will be light and variable throughout the week this and through the weekend before possibly picking back up a bit then the middle of next week.
Have a great day.
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