Good morning.
Green on the screen this morning to start Wednesday trade in Chicago, as most all commodity markets are higher at this writing in what appears to be a ‘risk-on’ wave following what was a quieter day for the most part on Tuesday. For the ag’s, it’s the beans and the bean oil that have been the leaders to this point, with both scoring new highs for their respective news. Corn futures this morning are trading 1-2 cents higher, soybean futures are trading 4-7 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 5-8 cents higher.
A survey of Bloomberg analysts shows on average, traders are looking for the USDA’s outlook forum this week to show corn planted acres in the coming season at 95.0 million, while soybean acres are seen at 85.0 million. Accordingly, production is seen at 15.936 bil bu for corn and 4.430 bil bu for soybeans. Numbers are expected to come out early in the morning on the forum’s first day, which begins tomorrow.
Along similar lines, national cooperative CoBank said this week that they saw a similar shift in acreage from last year but went even one step further in their estimates in estimating soybean acres at 86.0 million, while they see corn falling to 94.0 million. If accurate, the combined 180 million acres would be approaching the record 180.6 million combined acres planted in the 2021/22 season.
Amid what has already been a delayed and difficult harvest period, a Ukrainian farmers union said on Wednesday that another cold snap following a recent thaw has led to another layer of ice crust forming on fields that could damage both winter wheat and winter rapeseed crops. The country planted around 4.5 million hectares of winter wheat this year and around 1.1 million hectares of rapeseed, which are both similar to planted area figures seen in the previous season.
Citing better-than-normal crop conditions heading into the late-winter period in Russia, private analyst SovEcon this week raised their production estimate for the country’s 2026/27 wheat crop by 2.1 MMTs to 85.9 MMTs. The group said soil moisture reserves are relatively high compared to last year and that snow cover was “abundant” throughout most areas but also cautioned that the March-May period is still critical in terms of weather, and that it could still have an impact on final production.
Yesterday’s monthly NOPA soybean crush figure, which came in at 221.6 mil bu and was well above expectations, signals that US crush demand remains rather robust and could support a larger figure in this category from the USDA in the months ahead. However, surging oil supplies are raising questions over whether biofuel and export demand are keeping pace, which could be a limiting factor in the complex.
The Executive Director for the Port of Los Angeles, which is the busiest US gateway for ocean trade, said this week that exports in January were down 8% from last year and at the lowest monthly total in nearly three years, citing “dismal” exports to China. Soybean shipments from the port were down some 80% compared to last year.
Storms are working across the northern part of the Midwest and into Canada this morning, with a mix of rain and snow seen so far that is expected to continue working east throughout the day today and into tomorrow. There’s still a bit of model disagreement then into the end of the week, with the GFS this morning a bit more organized on precipitation for the southern Midwest and southeast than the EU model is. Both have sped this system up a bit today and now expect it to be mostly out of the East Coast by the end of the day on Friday.
Forecasts for South America are like yesterday’s runs this morning and continue to show an additional fairly wide-ranging 0.5-5″ of rainfall possible for most of Argentina’s growing regions over the next five days or so, while southern and south-central Brazil expect a lighter half inch to an inch in the same period. Following a brief dry spell through Argentina the back half of January, forecasts are back to having little in the way of concern in them for the next two weeks, as a good mix of rain and sunshine should be ideal for crop development/activities in both regions.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 02-18-2026
Good morning.
Green on the screen this morning to start Wednesday trade in Chicago, as most all commodity markets are higher at this writing in what appears to be a ‘risk-on’ wave following what was a quieter day for the most part on Tuesday. For the ag’s, it’s the beans and the bean oil that have been the leaders to this point, with both scoring new highs for their respective news. Corn futures this morning are trading 1-2 cents higher, soybean futures are trading 4-7 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 5-8 cents higher.
A survey of Bloomberg analysts shows on average, traders are looking for the USDA’s outlook forum this week to show corn planted acres in the coming season at 95.0 million, while soybean acres are seen at 85.0 million. Accordingly, production is seen at 15.936 bil bu for corn and 4.430 bil bu for soybeans. Numbers are expected to come out early in the morning on the forum’s first day, which begins tomorrow.
Along similar lines, national cooperative CoBank said this week that they saw a similar shift in acreage from last year but went even one step further in their estimates in estimating soybean acres at 86.0 million, while they see corn falling to 94.0 million. If accurate, the combined 180 million acres would be approaching the record 180.6 million combined acres planted in the 2021/22 season.
Amid what has already been a delayed and difficult harvest period, a Ukrainian farmers union said on Wednesday that another cold snap following a recent thaw has led to another layer of ice crust forming on fields that could damage both winter wheat and winter rapeseed crops. The country planted around 4.5 million hectares of winter wheat this year and around 1.1 million hectares of rapeseed, which are both similar to planted area figures seen in the previous season.
Citing better-than-normal crop conditions heading into the late-winter period in Russia, private analyst SovEcon this week raised their production estimate for the country’s 2026/27 wheat crop by 2.1 MMTs to 85.9 MMTs. The group said soil moisture reserves are relatively high compared to last year and that snow cover was “abundant” throughout most areas but also cautioned that the March-May period is still critical in terms of weather, and that it could still have an impact on final production.
Yesterday’s monthly NOPA soybean crush figure, which came in at 221.6 mil bu and was well above expectations, signals that US crush demand remains rather robust and could support a larger figure in this category from the USDA in the months ahead. However, surging oil supplies are raising questions over whether biofuel and export demand are keeping pace, which could be a limiting factor in the complex.
The Executive Director for the Port of Los Angeles, which is the busiest US gateway for ocean trade, said this week that exports in January were down 8% from last year and at the lowest monthly total in nearly three years, citing “dismal” exports to China. Soybean shipments from the port were down some 80% compared to last year.
Storms are working across the northern part of the Midwest and into Canada this morning, with a mix of rain and snow seen so far that is expected to continue working east throughout the day today and into tomorrow. There’s still a bit of model disagreement then into the end of the week, with the GFS this morning a bit more organized on precipitation for the southern Midwest and southeast than the EU model is. Both have sped this system up a bit today and now expect it to be mostly out of the East Coast by the end of the day on Friday.
Forecasts for South America are like yesterday’s runs this morning and continue to show an additional fairly wide-ranging 0.5-5″ of rainfall possible for most of Argentina’s growing regions over the next five days or so, while southern and south-central Brazil expect a lighter half inch to an inch in the same period. Following a brief dry spell through Argentina the back half of January, forecasts are back to having little in the way of concern in them for the next two weeks, as a good mix of rain and sunshine should be ideal for crop development/activities in both regions.
Have a great day.
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