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Grain Comments: 03-07-2023

Good Morning

Overnight volume was minimal with moves subdued either way into this morning; wheat was unable to extend lows during range-bound trade as the USDA lingers tomorrow—a steady-to-bearish report is expected.

U.S. precipitation forecasts remain active going forward, including a slightly better chance for southern Plains rains over the last half of this week; temperatures hold below normal through mid-month but that cold looks to be at least easing slightly towards the latter part of that 11-15 day forecast.

Argentina saw some rains far west yesterday with chances looking better west and south over the next 7-10 days; Brazil saw scattered rains from north to south over the past 24 hours with chances the best center-north during the next week-plus, and dry conditions lingering in southern corn and soy areas.

As more attention is starting to be placed on the spring planting season in the United States, more debate is taking place on potential acres. Last year US farmers seeded 88.6 million acres of corn, 87.5 million acres of soybeans, and 47.5 million acres of wheat. In the February Ag Outlook Forum US acres were estimated at 91 million for corn, 87.5 million on soybeans, and 49.5 million on wheat. We are starting to hear more farmers talking of higher corn acres though as economics favor that crop over others. Corn inputs have receded in recent months, mainly fertilizer values. It is thought this could encourage more corn plantings than the Outlook Forum projected, with some reports from the country indicating corn acres could top 92 million this year. A question with these predictions is where the acres would come from. Soybean balance sheets remain tight and cannot afford to lose any plantings this year. Wheat acres are also in need and likely to remain elevated. Corn may draw acres from other crops though, such as cotton. Weather will be a key factor in spring plantings though, and some regions of the Corn Belt are much wetter than in recent years. While this is positive for yield potential, if plantings are delayed, we may see fewer corn plantings than some believe.

Have a great day!

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