Grain Comments: 03-08-2023

Good Morning

The grains are mostly range-bound but favoring the low side ahead of the USDA later this morning; acreage needs and stocks uncertainty could provide a bit more bullish slant after this one and pre-March 31.

U.S. forecasts remain cool and wet going forward, with action still lightest in the driest SW Plains areas, wetter through the northern Plains and entire belt.

ARG chances fire up in the southwest in the coming days and increase in the south and west into the 6-10 day; Brazil again saw rains from north to south yesterday and active forecasts remain going forward, for all but the far south.

The bulk of trade interest today will likely center on the release of the monthly World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates. Very few changes are forecast for the domestic side of this release. Ending stocks on corn are forecast to increase 41 million bushels from February while soybean carryout is expected to decline 5 million bushels and wheat stocks to decrease 31 million bu. Export outlooks will have the most influence on these numbers, especially on corn. Corn demand continues to struggle, and exports remain 20% under the projected volume. Soybean sales remain above the projected volume. Wheat demand is about as expected. The most interest will fall on the global side with world corn reserves expected to decrease 2 million metric tons (mmt) from last month. This is from projected losses in the Argentine crop. Surprisingly, trade believes world soybean reserves will increase 2 mmt as the record large crop in Brazil will make up for losses in Argentina. The USDA is expected to reduce Argentine production by 3.6 mmt on corn and 4.7 mmt on soybeans from last month. These two numbers will be the main focal point of the report. The world wheat carryout is expected to be mostly unchanged from the February projection.

Have a great day!