Grain Comments: 03.10.25

Good morning. Mixed markets at the CBOT this morning to start the second week of trading in March, with wheat higher, soybeans lower, and corn caught in the middle. However, all three have taken a backseat to seed-oil markets like canola and soybean oil, with prices of each sharply lower this morning on the back of new tariff news from China over the weekend against Canadian exports of both canola oil and meal. This is yet another illustration of just how difficult it is to predict what country or product is going to be in the crosshairs of new tariffs as normal global trade flows continue to get upended. Otherwise, we expect there to be some measure of ‘hurry up and wait’ trade in the ag space today, with the USDA’s March supply and demand update due out tomorrow. Corn futures to start Monday are 2-3 cents higher, soybean futures are down 1-2 cents, and the Chicago wheat market is up 8-9 cents. Products are mixed, soybean meal is up $2.50/ton, and soybean oil is down around 110 points. Outside markets are mixed/lower, crude oil futures are up 30-40 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 460 points, and the US$ index is down 15 points. The S&P500 is down 70 points and the NASDAQ is down 300 points; gold futures are quietly lower. Canola futures had a big gap lower open last night and are down around 40 cents this morning.

Today’s Reports: Weekly Export Inspections

• March deliveries for Monday were once again active; according to the CME Group, there were another 34 contracts of soybean meal assigned going into the weekend Friday, along with 165 contracts of soybean oil, 1 contract of rice, 19 contracts of KC wheat, 142 contracts of soybeans, and 10 contracts of Chicago wheat.

• Friday afternoon’s CFTC report showed funds in the week ending March 4th were sellers of 117,702 contracts of corn, sellers of 43,695 contracts of soybeans, sellers of 14,786 contracts of Chicago wheat, sellers of 22,151 contracts of soybean meal, and finally, sellers of 33,383 contracts of soybean oil. This was the second largest week of fund selling in corn on record and also the largest for any week since Feb of 2023; this was also the largest week of fund selling in soybeans since June of last year.

• The weekly update from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, released late last week, showed recent rains have continued to help crop prospects throughout Argentina. Corn in the good/excellent category improved 6% on the week to 77%, while soybeans similarly improved from 67% in the same category last week to 73% now this week. The group once again made no production estimate updates, with the corn crop still seen at 49.0 mmt’s and the soybean crop seen at 49.6 mmt’s.

• For tomorrow morning’s March WASDE report, a survey of Retuers analysts showed the average trade guess for corn ending stocks at 1.516 bil bu’s, while soybean ending stocks are seen at 379 mil bu’s and wheat ending stocks are seen at 797 mil bu’s; all three figures would be similar to those seen in the February report. World stocks are also seen similar to last month, with corn estimated at 289.9 mmt’s, soybeans at 124.6 mmt’s and wheat at 257.6 mmt’s.

• As we mentioned at the top, the biggest ‘new news’ story coming out of the weekend was new 100% tariffs from China on Canadian exports of rapeseed (canola) oil and meal, as well as pea products; in addition, China also announced new 25% duties on pork and some seafood imports. The duties are set to go into effect on March 20th, and appear to be at least in some part a form of retaliation for 100% tariffs on Chinese EV’s and steel/aluminum imports that Canada imposed last year.

• Customs data from Brazil’s Trade Ministry for the month of February shows soybean exports out of the country in the month totaled 6.428 mmt’s, which was down just under 3% from last year; corn exports were down more than 16% at 1.432 mmt’s, while meal exports were up 9% at 1.763 mmt’s.

• According to the USDA, US federally inspected beef production in the week ending March 8th was up 2% on the week at 505 mil lbs, while pork production in the week was down 5% at 524 mil lbs. YTD beef production is now down 2.6% from last year at 4.83 bil lbs, while pork production is down 4.4% from last year at 5.24 bil lbs.

• In non-US political news over the weekend, former central banker Mark Carney claimed victory in a vote to lead Canada’s Liberal Party on Sunday, receiving 86% of the votes cast by party members. This sets him up to replace Justin Trudeau as Canada’s next Prime Minister, though sources familiar say Carney will likely call for an election in the weeks ahead. Of note, Carney will be the first Canadian PM with no prior experience in electoral politics.