Grain Comments: 03.11.25

Good morning. Welcome to report day. Markets are mixed/quiet to start Tuesday, with corn and beans slightly higher and the wheat market slightly lower. Volume has been notably light so far in the overnight session, as most traders are going to wait for the USDA numbers at 11am central time this morning before taking on any new sizeable positions in the grain markets. On top of that, the ongoing geopolitical situation has begun to frustrate some, which has given further reason to sit tight and see what happens later this morning. The bull camp is desperately looking for something positive to latch onto, and perhaps that something will come in the form of a surprise on the balance sheet. Corn futures this morning are trading 2-3 cents higher, soybean futures are trading 4-5 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is down 2-3 cents. Products are higher, soybean meal is up around $1/ton, and soybean oil is up 15-20 points. Outside markets are mixed/higher, crude oil futures are up 20 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 130 points, and the US$ index is down 50 points. The S&P500 is up 20 points and the NASDAQ is up 70 points; gold futures are up $15-20/oz.

Today’s Reports: JOLTs Monthly Jobs Data; March WASDE; API Energy Stocks

• Tuesday’s delivery slate according to the CME Group included just 1 contract of soybean meal, 195 contracts if soybean oil, 47 contracts of rice, 3 contracts of KC wheat, and 11 contracts of Chicago wheat.

• Conab yesterday evening, in their weekly crop progress report, showed that soybean harvest in Brazil has advanced to 60.9% complete as of Sunday, which is now ahead of both last year and the five-year average. Safrinha corn planting advanced to 83% complete, which is still behind last year’s pace of 86% but now ahead of the five-year average at 82%.

• Weekly winter wheat conditions released yesterday afternoon showed the crop in KS declined by 2% in the g/ex category on the week to 52%, while TX saw a slightly larger drop of 6% in the same category to now just 28%; conditions in OK however improved 11% in the g/ex category to 46%. All three states remain below last year’s ratings at this time of 53%, 44%, and 65% respectively.

• Following USDA numbers today, StatsCan will be out with updated 2025 acreage numbers at 7:30am central time tomorrow morning; a survey of Bloomberg analysts shows the trade expects wheat planted area to come in at 26.9 mil acres, while canola acres are seen declining slightly to 21.7 mil acres. Conab will then release its monthly crop update on Thursday at 7am central time.

• As it pertains to the report this morning, an agency spokesperson from the USDA indicated that existing new tariffs from the Trump administration would be taken into consideration on today’s numbers, which is an approach that coincides with established practices. The person said USDA assumes the tariffs will be in place for the remainder of the marketing year unless a deadline is explicitly listed. As 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico have yet to go into effect and demand from the Chinese already expected to be down, we would assume this doesn’t have a large impact on the March data.

• India’s Farm Ministry on Monday announced that wheat production in the current marketing year that ends in June is expected to reach a record 115.43 mmt’s, with all winter-sown grain production seen at 164.53 mmt’s. India is the world’s second largest wheat producer.

• Equity markets look to be on the quiet side today at least from a data standpoint; Ukranian President Zelensky is scheduled to meet with US representatives in Saudi Arabia later today, following a meeting between he and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Monday; this will be the first in-person meeting between the US and Zelensky since the Oval Office debacle a couple weeks ago.

• South America saw dry conditions on Monday, with just spotty showers noted across a small area in south-central Brazil. Forecasts shifted a hair dryer for Brazil overnight, but still offer precip through most of the southern ag areas over the next week. Argentina will continue to be mostly dry over the next week, but the further out week two forecast has rains returning into the end of the month, which means concern stays low. Temperatures will be mostly below average through most of Argentina, and above average through most of Brazil.

• US weather looks dry for a few days now into the end of the week for the Midwest, with light precip potential showing back up in the south Thursday/Friday. Meanwhile, a larger system will work into the western US also Thursday/Friday, providing snowfall at elevation and rain at lower levels. Due to ridging in the southeastern US, this system then looks to take a northern shift as it moves east, and is seen tracking through NE/IA/MN/WI through the day on Saturday.