Grain Comments: 03.19.26

Good morning. Happy first day of March Madness to those who celebrate. Follow through buying has been the theme in the ag space through the overnight hours so far, with the grain markets able to score new highs for the week and the beans back near the bounce-day highs from Tuesday. Monday’s sell-off still holds fresh in most traders’ minds, but like we mentioned when it happened, it appears at least with what we know today that the move was maybe a hair overdone and that markets have found some sort of value near that day’s lows. Developments with Iran or China can quickly change this, but at least for now, it seems the $4.50 and $11.50 areas on spot futures seem to be some kind of good support. The corn market this morning is trading 4-5 cents higher, soybeans are trading 2-6 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 4-6 cents higher.

📅 Today’s Reports: Weekly Jobless Claims; Weekly Export Sales

• This morning’s weekly export sales report for the week ending March 12th is expected to show corn sales in the week between 600k-1.8 mil MTs, soybean sales between 350k-800k MTs, and wheat sales between 300k-550k MTs. The report will be out at 7:30am central time. As a reminder, next week’s report will be the first under the USDA’s new export sales reporting system, but is still expected out at the regular time Thursday morning.

• Similar to concerns raised by US ag groups since the Iran war started, the Brazilian government said this week that a prolonged conflict could lead to fertilizer supply problems for its farmers while also criticizing suppliers for sharply raising prices. Brazil’s Ag Minister specifically made comments towards price increases on supplies that were already in the country, saying that increased costs there “make no sense.”

• Not necessarily new news, but the White House confirmed on Wednesday that China had agreed to President Trump’s request to postpone the coming meeting between he and President Xi, though no new date for the summit had been reached yet. Trump said earlier this week that it would likely be “five or six weeks” before the meeting took place, which would apparently coincide with what seems to be his perceived timeline for when the conflict in Iran could be wrapped up.

• Aside from weekly jobs data due out this morning, financial world focus for Thursday will be somewhat centered on this morning’s interest rate decision by the European Central Bank, though traders see the bloc leaving lending rates unchanged for what is likely to be the sixth straight meeting. The move would come following no change in US interest rates also this week, as both central banks are assessing new risks posed by the war in Iran and also continuing to evaluate the affects of Trump’s tariffs and their effect on world trade flows.

• Among other comments, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday that while one rate cut was still expected throughout the course of 2026, it would only occur should clear progress be made on inflation and that ongoing price pressures tied to Iran and tariffs could have an impact on this. Powell added that he thought policy was currently in the right place, but that the Fed discussed both sides of the path forward, including what a rate hike might look like. The Chairman’s comments would seem to suggest the Fed is still very much data-dependent and that concerns regarding another uptick in inflation are still very present.

• Precip maps for the Corn Belt have continued to trend drier the last 24 hours, with their being good agreement on the bulk of the contiguous US seeing little to no precip chances over the next seven days. The exception to this is in both northern corners of the country, with both the northwest and the northeast expected to be really the only areas that see any kind of precip potential into the back half of next week. Temperatures will be increasingly rising into the weekend before moderating a bit the middle of next week, but there is no sign this morning of a return of the cold air seen earlier this week into the end of the month and first part of April.