Grain Comments: 03.20.26

Good morning. Happy Friday. And happy first day of spring! Markets are mixed this morning to get Friday trade going, with the grain and meal markets lower while the bean and bean oil markets are higher on a continuation of much the same news and market inputs that have been seen all week. For the most part, the fundamental piece of price discovery in the grain markets has gone by the wayside which has made predicting daily price moves rather difficult. It remains our opinion that once fundamentals come back into focus the market should probably see some kind of correction, we just can’t make a strong case for this until things settle down in the Middle East. Corn futures this morning are trading 3-4 cents lower, soybean futures are trading unchanged to a penny higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 10-11 cents lower.

📅 Today’s Reports: Cattle on Feed; CFTC Commitment of Traders

• The USDA is set to release its monthly Cattle on Feed report later this afternoon at 2pm central time. Traders see the report showing the March 1 feedlot herd in the US at 11.496 million head, which would be down less than 1% from a year ago. February placements are seen at 1.557 mil head (100.2% of a year ago) and marketings in the month are seen at 1.512 mil head (92.6% of a year ago).

• Monthly livestock slaughter data from the USDA, released yesterday afternoon, showed total US red meat production in the month of February at 4.145 bil lbs, down 10% from January and down 2% from Feb last year. Beef production was seen at 1.93 bil lbs, down 4% from last year, and pork production was seen at 2.199 bil lbs, unchanged from last year. To view the full report, please click here.

• Weekly Argentine crop data from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange showed corn harvest in the country advanced 3.6% over the past week to 13% complete, which continues to be generally on track with last year and ahead of average. Production was again held steady at 57 MMTs and the group also made no changes to their soybean production estimates, which was left at 48.5 MMTs. G/EX conditions in the soybean crop were up 2% on the week to 78%.

• Several sources familiar with the matter said this week that China has cutback on fertilizer exports to protect its domestic markets, putting additional strain on global markets that have already been riled by the ongoing situation in the Middle East. The ban has not been formally announced, but was reported by Bloomberg earlier this week.

• Though not surprising, region-specific customs data from the Chinese government showed Beijing’s soybean imports from the US in the first two months of 2026 at just 1.49 MMTs, which was down some 84% from a year ago as purchases made as part of a trade agreement in the fall generally were still yet to ship. Meanwhile, shipments from Brazil showed an almost exact 1:1 inverse, coming in up 83% from the same period last year at 6.56 MMTs. Of note, imports from Argentina were also up nearly 30% from last year at 3.27 MMTs.

• Newswire reports this week indicate wildfires across vast tracts of grazing land in Nebraska have burned some 775,000 acres in the last 5-10 days, potentially slowing rancher plans for production increases that are coming on the back of record high beef prices. The state’s Dept of Ag director said the affected area was a grazing resource for around 40,000 head of cattle.