Grain Comments: 03.23.26

Good morning. CBOT ag markets have been on a bumpy ride already through the overnight hours to get the new week of trade started, with all three row crops having traded higher through most of the night before selling off on new Iran headlines first thing this morning, leading to already wide price ranges before the day session even gets started on Monday. The ag dinner at the White House at the end of the week this week will be a story for biofuel markets, but otherwise, we fear the space is staring down another week of trading Middle East headlines, which has already become exhausting for some. Corn futures at this writing are trading 4-5 cents lower, soybean futures are trading either side of unchanged, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 7-9 cents lower.

📅 Today’s Reports: Weekly Export Inspections

• Friday afternoon’s CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed managed money traders in the week ending March 17th were buyers of 35,533 contracts of corn (+228,804), sellers of 20,110 contracts of soybeans (+201,997), and buyers of 9,643 contracts of Chicago wheat (-12,702). In the soy products, funds bought 3,232 contracts of meal (+83,893) and bought 13,518 contracts of oil (+122,356).

• The USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report, also released Friday afternoon, showed the US feedlot herd as of March 1 at 11.549 million head, which was just fractionally lower from last year. Placements in February were seen at 1.611 mil head, or 104% of last year, and marketings in the month were seen at 1.522 mil head, or 93% of last year. To view the full report, please click here; and to view our MID-CO Cattle on Feed maps, please click here.

• A Brazilian news outlet late last week reported that China has eased rules related to the presence of weeds and weed seed in soybean shipments, saying they would not be implementing a zero tolerance policy that was rumored last week. The move comes following negotiations between Chinese buyers and Brazilian exporters over phytosanitary requirements that led to several South American shippers pulling offers for a period last week.

• Private Brazilian Agribusiness firm Patria AgroNegocios said late last week that soybean harvest in the country had reached 65.8% complete, which remains behind the 74% complete pace seen at the same time last year and also behind the five-year average which is at 67%. The group said excessive rainfall in some areas was again becoming a concern, but that yields were generally still positive and within expectations.

• Ahead of next week’s quarterly stocks and acreage data that is due to be released by the USDA, ag market focus this week in the meantime will be somewhat centered on Friday’s event at the White House, which some feel could be a stage for the administration to announce new long-awaited RVO guidelines for the current year. Such an announcement would presumably be friendly soybean oil, but we would urge a bit of caution around the possibility that buy the rumor, sell the fact trade could emerge with as much premium is already in the market.

• Headlines this morning have urea prices up some 25-30% since the Iran war started a couple weeks ago now amid force majeure and stranded shipments. The price shock is likely to curb application rates this spring/summer, especially in slower developing countries, which could likely lead to lower yields at harvest later this fall.

• Weekend weather featured record high temperatures across a lot of the central US, with places from KS to TN taking out old highs that had stood in some cases since the late 1800’s. A small cold front worked through the west-central part of the US yesterday and will continue working east today and tomorrow, but things stay warm otherwise, as the high pressure ridge we talked about last week in the southwest keeps plenty of warmer air present throughout the western 2/3s of the US.