Grain Comments: 03.25.26

Good morning. It’s a back and forth we go type of morning in Chicago to get Wednesday ag trade started, with selling in the crude oil market producing pullbacks in the grains and bean oil, while the beans and meal are inversely trading just marginally higher. Like we talked about yesterday, its headlines regarding Iran and the EPA that drive price direction the rest of the week this week, which means choppy trade presumably continues until/unless something comes up on either front. Corn futures this morning are trading 2-3 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 2-4 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 9-10 cents lower.

📅 Today’s Reports: EIA Weekly Ethanol Production/Energy Stocks

• This morning’s weekly ethanol report from the EIA, with data for the week ending March 20th, is expected to show average daily production in the US during the week between 1.061-1.099 mil bbls, while stocks in the week are seen between 26.20-26.409 mil bbls; if accurate, the production figure would be up from last week, while stocks would be just about unchanged. The report is due out at its regular 9:30am central release time.

• The USDA’s monthly cold storage report released yesterday afternoon showed total US frozen red meat supplies at 834.466 mil lbs as of February 28th, which is down 2% from the month prior and down 5% from February of last year; frozen beef supplies were seen at 413.3 mil lbs, down 5% from last year also, and frozen pork supplies were seen at 403.5 mil lbs, down 5% on the year as well. To view the full report from the USDA, please click here.

• Staying with the same theme, the USDA is also set to release its quarterly hogs and pigs report tomorrow afternoon on Thursday; traders see the report showing all hogs and pigs in the US as of March 1 at 74.770 mil head, which would be up roughly 1% from the same day last year. Breeding hogs are seen at 5.970 mil head, down just 0.2% from year ago, and market hogs are seen at 68.818 mil head, up 1% from year ago. The report will be out tomorrow at 2pm central time.

• A media advisory posted by the EPA indicates committee head Lee Zeldin is scheduled to make an announcement regarding E10 and E15 ethanol blends at noon today at the CERAWeek conference in Houston. The advisory notes that the announcement has nothing to do with the renewable fuel standard rules that have also been highly anticipated this week and are expected before going home for the weekend on Friday.

• Amid what have already been sharply rising global fertilizer prices, Russia announced this week that it would be suspending ammonium nitrate exports until April 21st to keep more of the product on hand for farmers’ spring planting needs. Russia typically accounts for around 40% of world ammonium nitrate trade.

• Private South American export group ANEC further reduced estimates for Brazil’s March soybean exports, citing ongoing discrepancies in phytosanitary agreements by the Chinese as reason for the slowed pace. The group now sees exports in the month at just 15.87 MMTs, which is down from an estimate of 16.32 MMTs last week; Brazil exported 14.66 MMTs of soybeans in March 2025. ANEC also lowered their meal export forecast for the month from 2.66 MMTs to 2.44 MMTs.

• Rainfall forecasts for the Midwest trended wetter overnight into the back half of next week, but were otherwise unchanged in the short term as things look to continue to stay mostly mild and dry until a cold front works through the area Thursday night into Friday. High pressure across most of the country continues to dominate the pattern, but the models are in good agreement on several rounds of rainfall possible for the region then beyond this weekend and into next week, which should be beneficial for soil moisture levels.