Grain Comments: 03.26.26

Good morning. CBOT ag markets are quietly mixed this morning in what has been one of the quieter overnight sessions in the ag markets for some time now. We’ve mentioned it in passing several times the past few days, but Tuesday’s stocks and acreage data next week should spark a shift back to fundamentals and away from the energy ‘tag-along’ trading that has gone on the better part of the last few weeks now. Spring planting season is right around the corner, which should bring weather and agronomics back into focus. Corn futures to start Thursday are trading either side of unchanged, soybean futures are trading unchanged to a penny lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 2-3 cents lower.

📅 Today’s Reports: Weekly Export Sales; Weekly Jobless Claims

• This morning’s weekly export sales report, with data for the week ending March 19th, is expected to show corn sales in the week in a range of 700k-1.5 mil MTs, soybean sales between 200k-500k MTs, and wheat sales between 100k-400k MTs. The report will be out at its normal 7:30am central time this morning.

• USDA is set to release its quarterly hogs and pigs report this afternoon at 2pm central time; traders see the report showing all hogs and pigs in the US as of March 1 at 74.770 mil head, which would be up roughly 1% from the same day last year. Breeding hogs are seen at 5.970 mil head, down just 0.2% from year ago, and market hogs are seen at 68.818 mil head, up 1% from year ago.

• Private South American consultancy Agroconsult said Brazil’s second corn crop was likely to be down some 8% from the year prior at 114.5 MMTs, though the group added that April weather would have the final say in the crop size. Soybean production was estimated at 184.7 MMTs, which would be up around 7% from last year.

• Tomorrow’s Celebration of Ag event at the White House is expected to be policy focused for the most part, with traders still expecting some sort of renewable fuel announcement to be the event’s main feature. It’s also assumed that the recently announced E15 waivers will be a topic of discussion.

• President Trump confirmed on Truth Social Wednesday that the much anticipated meeting between he and Chinese President Xi Jinping had been rescheduled for May 14th and 15th. Trump added that he would host Xi and his wife for a reciprocal meeting in Washington at a later date sometime this year.

• Trump also took to Truth Social to further air grievances with Iranian negotiators, who he described as being “different” and “strange”. Trump said that Iran was “begging” the US to make a deal, but that they continue to publicly state otherwise and that if it continues, he could use ground forces as part of what could be a “final blow” to the regime. Oil futures are up around $3.50/bbl this morning.

• Severe weather looks to impact the eastern and east-central Midwest through the night tonight as a frontal boundary works through the area, bringing storms and a shot of cold air with it. Tomorrow’s daytime high will be some 40+ degrees lower than today’s, but the cold only lasts into the weekend before things warm back up again the first part of next week. Rainfall chances then improve through the week next week, with the models this morning showing several rounds of precip possible into mid-April.