Grain Comments: 03-30-2023

Good morning:

Corn dominated what there was of weak overnight trade volume, with the spot contract leading the way back as funds slowly rebuild; daily and weekly export sales are on tap shortly, USDA acreage and stocks loom large tomorrow, and U.S. weather forecasts will be the focus after that.

Today’s USDA Hogs & Pigs Report is expected to show all U.S. hogs and pigs on March 1 at 72.834 million head, or 100.2% of last year; hogs kept for breeding are seen at 100.5% of last year, with marketings at 100.2% of last year.

Precipitation looks active near-term for all but the central and southern Plains, continued wet (and cool) right up through the middle of April. Rain chances look better for northeastern Brazil safrinha corn areas starting next week.

Trade has not reacted as hoped to the recent corn sales we have seen, especially those to China. One of the main reasons for this is that even with the added demand, cumulative corn sales are still short of the pace needed to reach current USDA yearly expectations. We are currently 10% under the projected sales volume, and 37% behind last year’s export loadings. Adding to this is the fact that year to date sales and exports also trail the normal pace. This is giving us a sign that some of the corn sales on the books may be rolled to new crop delivery or are simply a hedge against a potential short crop in South America. We know the Argentine crop will fall short of initial estimates, but by how much is unknown, especially with recent rains which some field scouts are viewing as positive for late seeded fields. The same is true in Brazil where rains have favored all later seeded crops. Buyers are also not showing interest in US corn offers past June which is when the Safrinha crop out of Brazil will be available for export. Even without daily sales trade is more interested in soybean bookings which indicate yearly demand is likely underestimated at this time.

Have great day!