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Grain Comments: 03-31-2023

Good morning!

The trade is anxiously awaiting the USDA at 11 AM central today with corn and soy acreage the key numbers, but stocks always a wild card; the market will be on to planting weather come Monday regardless.

Yesterday’s USDA Hogs & Pigs Report showed all U.S. hogs and pigs on 3/1 at 72.861 million head, or 100.2% of last year; hogs kept for breeding came in at 100.5% with marketings at 100.2% – all three matched trade estimates.

An active U.S. pattern continues today with more on the way early next week, for all but the central/southern Plains and SW belt; extended maps map be starting to trend a bit drier finally, with temps cool up through the 6-10 day but outlooks there a bit more mixed by the 11-15 day period also.

The long-awaited March prospective plantings and quarterly stocks data will finally be released today. The most interest leading into this has been on acreage which is not uncommon. The average trade estimate is for 90.9 million planted acres of corn this year, 2.4 million more than last year’s plantings. This increase is the result of more favorable returns on corn that other crops, as well as better insurance floors. Soybean plantings are estimated at 88.3 million which would be 800,000 more than last year. Total wheat acreage this year is projected at 48.9 million by trade which would be up 1.4 million on the year. These increases are from expectations we will see much less prevent plant this year which is starting to become more of a market topic given current weather in the United States. While trade will focus on these numbers, more interest will likely fall on the June revisions which will be post-planting. US grain and soybean inventory as of March 1st will also be released today with trade expecting stocks of 7.47 billion bu (bbu) on corn, 1.73 bbu on soybeans, and 929 million bu (mbu) of wheat. Compared to last year these would be reductions of 290 mbu on corn, 200 mbu for soybeans, and 101 mbu for wheat. A reminder, daily trading limits are 45 cents on corn, $1.00 on soybeans, and 65 cents on wheat.

 

Have a great weekend!

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