Grain Comments: 03.30.26

Good morning. Ag trade is mixed in Chicago to begin wrapping up the month of March, with the grains and meal markets unchanged to lower and the soy complex in the green to get Monday morning rolling. With the RVO now known and the situation still simmering in the Middle East, focus for the next couple days will likely take a more micro shift, as the USDA’s March 31 stocks and acreage updates take center stage and likely garner most of the trade’s attention from now into mid-week. Corn futures this morning are trading unchanged to a penny lower, soybean futures are trading 3-6 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 4-5 cents lower.

📅 Today’s Reports: Weekly Export Inspections

• Friday’s CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed managed money traders in the week ending March 24th were buyers of 55,744 contracts of corn (+284,548), sellers of 4,093 contracts of soybeans (+197,904) and buyers of 10,467 contracts of Chicago wheat (-2,234). In soy products, funds were buyers of 24,039 contracts of meal (+107,932) and were buyers of 265 contracts of bean oil (+122,621).

• For tomorrow’s quarterly stocks and acreage reports, traders see March 1 corn stocks coming in at 9.104 billion bu vs 8.147 bil last year, while soybean stocks are seen at 2.067 bil bu vs 1.911 bil last year and wheat stocks are seen at 1.310 bil bu vs 1.237 bil last year. For planted acreage, trade sees US corn acres at 94.371 million, soybean acres at 85.549 million, and all wheat acres at 44.786 million.

• The EPA’s Friday biofuel announcement saw a mixed reception, with global crop traders and renewable fuel advocates cheering the decision, while oil and gas groups expressed concerns over rising consumer costs linked to the new mandates. The new rule requires refiners to blend around 26 billion gallons of biofuels into conventional diesel and gas blends this year, up around 8% from what was required in 2025.

• Private South American ag consultancy Patria AgroNegocios reported late last week that soybean harvest in Brazil had reached 73% complete, just slightly behind the five year average but still down some 8% from last year’s pace. The group added that rains are expected to lessen throughout the week this week, which should aid in progress. Top producing state Mato Grosso is all but wrapped with harvest, with data here showing harvest at 99.3% complete.

• Staying in South America, the Argentine government on Friday announced that it would allow local firms to voluntarily blend up to 15% ethanol into gasoline as a result of higher oil prices leading to jumps in local fuel costs. According to local data, Argy gas prices were up more than 18% during the month of March and are up more than 60% from this time last year, mostly as a result of the conflict in Iran.

Midwest weather was mostly quiet through the weekend but looks to see increased activity this week as models have trended wetter over the last 48 hours for most of the eastern US. Forecasts have several rounds of precip now likely over the next 7-10 days, with rainfall total estimates seen ranging from a half inch to upwards of 4-5″ throughout an area stretching from the Dakotas to TX to the far northeast. There will be areas along the southeast coast in parts of GA and the Carolinas that will be shortchanged on this moisture, but otherwise, almost all of the region expects good rainfall this week into next.