Good morning.
CBOT ag markets are choppy/mixed in a similar fashion to yesterday to start Tuesday, with overnight volume light as traders await the USDA’s spring data dump at 11:00am central time this morning. The numbers likely control price action into the afternoon and possibly throughout the week this week, but as we’ve talked about recently, these acreage numbers are far from final, and in the grand scheme of things, could mean very little depending on what happens with weather between now and June. They are a starting point and should not be viewed as anything more in our opinion sitting here on March 31st. Corn futures to get the morning started are trading 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 1-2 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 1-2 cents higher also.
Weekly state level crop progress data from the USDA released yesterday afternoon showed another week of worsening crop conditions in the US wheat belt. G/EX conditions in KS were down 6% on the week to 40%, while TX was down 2% to 14%, OK was down 1% to 13%, CO was down 10% to 14%, and NE was down 9% to just 9% G/EX. The data showed corn planting also continued to advance across the south last week as well; LA is now 76% planted, TX is 53%, and MS is 50% complete. Of note, the USDA is set to resume its regular weekly crop progress reports for the season next week on Monday, April 6th.
A government official from India’s Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilizers said on Monday that the country has adequate stocks of fertilizers for its summer seeding campaign that will begin in the next couple weeks, adding that it had also already began tapping alternative sources of supply to ensure shortages didn’t develop.
Shortly after President Trump issued the above remarks, reports from the Wall Street Journal indicated that the US may be willing to end the war without reopening the Strait, adding to the ongoing confusion surrounding the situation. If true, the development would seemingly signal a shift towards a “managed instability” outcome by the US as opposed to a total resolution, which Trump has sought from the beginning. Crude oil futures are mixed this morning but scored new highs for the week in the overnight session last night.
Data from the American Automobile Association released on Monday showed the nationwide average retail price for regular unleaded gasoline ticked up to $4.018/gallon over the last week, topping the $4 mark for the first time since late-summer in 2022. US prices averaged just $2.98 the day before the Iran war started and have gone up more than $1/gallon in the weeks since.
Weather across the Corn Belt looks like it will be active throughout the rest of the week this week, with models in good agreement this morning on potentially several rounds of severe weather and thunderstorms impacting the eastern half of the country beginning today and running into next week. Model output on rainfall totals this morning is similar to what was seen yesterday, with the bulk of the region outside of the far southeast expected to see anywhere from a half inch to upwards of 4-5″ of rainfall between now and the end of the day on Sunday.
These storm systems will have some pockets of cooler air associated with them but overall, temperature outlooks for the Midwest are still trending warmer than normal into at least the middle of April and the models are in better agreement on this outlook this morning than they were yesterday.
Good luck with today’s USDA numbers! We see these datasets driving price direction into the close today and maybe into mid-week this week, but beyond there, it will be all about planting pace and weather as we get into April.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 03-31-2026
Good morning.
CBOT ag markets are choppy/mixed in a similar fashion to yesterday to start Tuesday, with overnight volume light as traders await the USDA’s spring data dump at 11:00am central time this morning. The numbers likely control price action into the afternoon and possibly throughout the week this week, but as we’ve talked about recently, these acreage numbers are far from final, and in the grand scheme of things, could mean very little depending on what happens with weather between now and June. They are a starting point and should not be viewed as anything more in our opinion sitting here on March 31st. Corn futures to get the morning started are trading 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 1-2 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 1-2 cents higher also.
Weekly state level crop progress data from the USDA released yesterday afternoon showed another week of worsening crop conditions in the US wheat belt. G/EX conditions in KS were down 6% on the week to 40%, while TX was down 2% to 14%, OK was down 1% to 13%, CO was down 10% to 14%, and NE was down 9% to just 9% G/EX. The data showed corn planting also continued to advance across the south last week as well; LA is now 76% planted, TX is 53%, and MS is 50% complete. Of note, the USDA is set to resume its regular weekly crop progress reports for the season next week on Monday, April 6th.
A government official from India’s Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilizers said on Monday that the country has adequate stocks of fertilizers for its summer seeding campaign that will begin in the next couple weeks, adding that it had also already began tapping alternative sources of supply to ensure shortages didn’t develop.
Shortly after President Trump issued the above remarks, reports from the Wall Street Journal indicated that the US may be willing to end the war without reopening the Strait, adding to the ongoing confusion surrounding the situation. If true, the development would seemingly signal a shift towards a “managed instability” outcome by the US as opposed to a total resolution, which Trump has sought from the beginning. Crude oil futures are mixed this morning but scored new highs for the week in the overnight session last night.
Data from the American Automobile Association released on Monday showed the nationwide average retail price for regular unleaded gasoline ticked up to $4.018/gallon over the last week, topping the $4 mark for the first time since late-summer in 2022. US prices averaged just $2.98 the day before the Iran war started and have gone up more than $1/gallon in the weeks since.
Weather across the Corn Belt looks like it will be active throughout the rest of the week this week, with models in good agreement this morning on potentially several rounds of severe weather and thunderstorms impacting the eastern half of the country beginning today and running into next week. Model output on rainfall totals this morning is similar to what was seen yesterday, with the bulk of the region outside of the far southeast expected to see anywhere from a half inch to upwards of 4-5″ of rainfall between now and the end of the day on Sunday.
These storm systems will have some pockets of cooler air associated with them but overall, temperature outlooks for the Midwest are still trending warmer than normal into at least the middle of April and the models are in better agreement on this outlook this morning than they were yesterday.
Good luck with today’s USDA numbers! We see these datasets driving price direction into the close today and maybe into mid-week this week, but beyond there, it will be all about planting pace and weather as we get into April.
Have a great day.
View All News >