Good morning.
Wednesday ag trade to start the new month is seeing corrective action this morning, with all three of the row crop markets and bean oil lower by varying degrees and generally giving back the gains seen on Tuesday. Yesterday’s price moves probably weren’t entirely unwarranted or overdone based on report fundamentals, but that an end to the war in Iran is seemingly gaining traction and becoming more likely the last 24 hours has likely prompted some measure of premium extraction by the faster moving traders. Corn futures to start on Wednesday are trading 4-6 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 7-9 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 10-12 cents lower.
This morning’s weekly ethanol update from the EIA is expected to show average daily US production in the week ending March 27th between 1.110-1.130 mil bbls, which would be up just slightly from last week on average. Ethanol stocks in the week are seen between 26.20-26.90 mil bbls, which would be down from last week. The report will be out this morning at 9:30am central time.
USDA is set to release updated monthly soybean crush and corn grind data later this afternoon. According to a Bloomberg survey, traders see US soybean crush in the month of February at 215 mil bu, which if accurate, would be up some 13% from the same month last year. Soybean oil stocks as of the end of the month are estimated at 2.598 bil lbs., which would be up 35% from last year. And lastly, corn grind for ethanol is seen at 422.1 mil bu, up just 0.1% from last year. Both reports will be out this afternoon at 2pm central time.
With March coming to an end, Russia’s rail operator said total wheat exports in the month could have reached 4.85 MMTs, which would be close to the all-time record for the month of 4.89 MMTs set in 2024 and would also be well above the month’s five-year average of 2.9 MMTs. Cumulative marketing year shipments through March are seen at 37.7 MMTs, which would be up from 36.3 MMTs throughout the same period last year.
After previously scrapping the plans in January, officials from Indonesia’s government said on Tuesday that the Pacific nation would be going ahead with plans to implement B50 biodiesel blend rates beginning on July 1, raising the mandatory requirements from the current 40% level. Sources say the move is part of a wider government program put in place to help mitigate the risks caused by the war in Iran.
Sources familiar with the matter say Washington is currently scrambling to try and find a mechanism to refund nearly $166 billion in tariff revenue collected by the Trump administration over the last 12+ months, following a recent SCOTUS ruling that the duties were unconstitutional. The headlines highlight the ongoing uncertainty regarding the situation, though a return of capital to importers and businesses would seemingly be overall supportive of markets.
Parts of the eastern and central Corn Belt saw strong winds and heavy rains through the evening yesterday and overnight last night, with these storms expected to continue working north and east through the day today and into tonight. As they exit, another round of storms will start spinning up in the central and west-central US this afternoon/evening but will take a more northern track Thursday/Friday than this previous one.
Overall, additional rainfall totals through the end of the weekend this morning are still seen in a 1-4″ ballpark generally speaking, with lesser amounts to the west and east and some locally heavier amounts through the central part of the region.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 04-01-2026
Good morning.
Wednesday ag trade to start the new month is seeing corrective action this morning, with all three of the row crop markets and bean oil lower by varying degrees and generally giving back the gains seen on Tuesday. Yesterday’s price moves probably weren’t entirely unwarranted or overdone based on report fundamentals, but that an end to the war in Iran is seemingly gaining traction and becoming more likely the last 24 hours has likely prompted some measure of premium extraction by the faster moving traders. Corn futures to start on Wednesday are trading 4-6 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 7-9 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 10-12 cents lower.
This morning’s weekly ethanol update from the EIA is expected to show average daily US production in the week ending March 27th between 1.110-1.130 mil bbls, which would be up just slightly from last week on average. Ethanol stocks in the week are seen between 26.20-26.90 mil bbls, which would be down from last week. The report will be out this morning at 9:30am central time.
USDA is set to release updated monthly soybean crush and corn grind data later this afternoon. According to a Bloomberg survey, traders see US soybean crush in the month of February at 215 mil bu, which if accurate, would be up some 13% from the same month last year. Soybean oil stocks as of the end of the month are estimated at 2.598 bil lbs., which would be up 35% from last year. And lastly, corn grind for ethanol is seen at 422.1 mil bu, up just 0.1% from last year. Both reports will be out this afternoon at 2pm central time.
With March coming to an end, Russia’s rail operator said total wheat exports in the month could have reached 4.85 MMTs, which would be close to the all-time record for the month of 4.89 MMTs set in 2024 and would also be well above the month’s five-year average of 2.9 MMTs. Cumulative marketing year shipments through March are seen at 37.7 MMTs, which would be up from 36.3 MMTs throughout the same period last year.
After previously scrapping the plans in January, officials from Indonesia’s government said on Tuesday that the Pacific nation would be going ahead with plans to implement B50 biodiesel blend rates beginning on July 1, raising the mandatory requirements from the current 40% level. Sources say the move is part of a wider government program put in place to help mitigate the risks caused by the war in Iran.
Sources familiar with the matter say Washington is currently scrambling to try and find a mechanism to refund nearly $166 billion in tariff revenue collected by the Trump administration over the last 12+ months, following a recent SCOTUS ruling that the duties were unconstitutional. The headlines highlight the ongoing uncertainty regarding the situation, though a return of capital to importers and businesses would seemingly be overall supportive of markets.
Parts of the eastern and central Corn Belt saw strong winds and heavy rains through the evening yesterday and overnight last night, with these storms expected to continue working north and east through the day today and into tonight. As they exit, another round of storms will start spinning up in the central and west-central US this afternoon/evening but will take a more northern track Thursday/Friday than this previous one.
Overall, additional rainfall totals through the end of the weekend this morning are still seen in a 1-4″ ballpark generally speaking, with lesser amounts to the west and east and some locally heavier amounts through the central part of the region.
Have a great day.
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