Good morning.
Ag trade at the CBOT has been choppy and in light volume again in the overnight hours to get Thursday started, though has been mostly higher throughout the session in the case of most markets besides meal. Explanation for the morning’s buying is simple; crude oil futures are sharply higher on Trump’s comments that the war will go on, which has bean oil sharply higher, which has the beans higher, which has the ag space mostly as a whole higher. We’ve talked about it for weeks now, but daily price action remains vigorously tied to global energy markets, and until these changes, fundamentals and early planting progress will continue to take a back seat in terms of influence on prices. The corn market this morning is trading 3-4 cents higher, soybeans are trading 3-5 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 9-10 cents higher.
This morning’s weekly export sales report for the week ending March 26th will be out at its regular 7:30am central time, but we do not have trade estimates available as of this writing. Last week, USDA reported sales of 1.218 MMTs of corn, 669k MTs of soybeans, and 397k MTs of wheat.
USDA yesterday afternoon released monthly soybean crush and corn grind data for February. The reports showed US soybean crush in the month at 214 mil bu, which was down 6% in the month but up 13% from the same month last year. Soybean oil stocks as of the end of the month totaled 2.600 bil lbs., which was up 7% from January and up some 35% from February of last year. Corn grind for ethanol in the month was pegged at 425 mil bu, down 8% from Jan but up 1% from Feb 2025.
Weekly crop data from the Buenos Aries Grain Exchange in Argentina showed corn harvest in the country advanced just 3.8% over the last week to 19% complete, which has fallen just slightly behind last year’s pace as some areas are seeing a bit too much moisture. For beans, G/EX conditions were up 1% on the week to 83%. Production estimates for both crops were left unchanged at 57 MMTs and 48.5 MMTs respectively.
Private ag consultancy StoneX on Wednesday raised its estimate of Brazil’s soybean crop by about 1% to 179.7 MMTs, while also lowering its estimate of the corn crop in the country by about 0.3 MMTs to 135.7 MMTs. The figures compare to the USDA at 180.0 and 132.0 MMTs respectively.
Active/potentially severe weather looks to be a theme across the Midwest again on Thursday, as low pressure working through the region will continue to provide additional rainfall and storm risk to most of the country east of MN/IA/MO. The region then looks to see one more storm system work through Saturday into Sunday, but then models have things settling down a bit again into next week, with a cooler, drier week likely on deck.
Argentina will see rainfall throughout most of the central and eastern parts of the country into the first part of next week, possibly leading to further harvest delays, while the forecast for Brazil continues to be rather variable on precipitation amounts/locations. Today, the model is back drier throughout most of the central and southern regions into next week while it keeps raining further north but has moisture filling back in the south by the end of next week and the following weekend.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 04-02-2026
Good morning.
Ag trade at the CBOT has been choppy and in light volume again in the overnight hours to get Thursday started, though has been mostly higher throughout the session in the case of most markets besides meal. Explanation for the morning’s buying is simple; crude oil futures are sharply higher on Trump’s comments that the war will go on, which has bean oil sharply higher, which has the beans higher, which has the ag space mostly as a whole higher. We’ve talked about it for weeks now, but daily price action remains vigorously tied to global energy markets, and until these changes, fundamentals and early planting progress will continue to take a back seat in terms of influence on prices. The corn market this morning is trading 3-4 cents higher, soybeans are trading 3-5 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 9-10 cents higher.
This morning’s weekly export sales report for the week ending March 26th will be out at its regular 7:30am central time, but we do not have trade estimates available as of this writing. Last week, USDA reported sales of 1.218 MMTs of corn, 669k MTs of soybeans, and 397k MTs of wheat.
USDA yesterday afternoon released monthly soybean crush and corn grind data for February. The reports showed US soybean crush in the month at 214 mil bu, which was down 6% in the month but up 13% from the same month last year. Soybean oil stocks as of the end of the month totaled 2.600 bil lbs., which was up 7% from January and up some 35% from February of last year. Corn grind for ethanol in the month was pegged at 425 mil bu, down 8% from Jan but up 1% from Feb 2025.
Weekly crop data from the Buenos Aries Grain Exchange in Argentina showed corn harvest in the country advanced just 3.8% over the last week to 19% complete, which has fallen just slightly behind last year’s pace as some areas are seeing a bit too much moisture. For beans, G/EX conditions were up 1% on the week to 83%. Production estimates for both crops were left unchanged at 57 MMTs and 48.5 MMTs respectively.
Private ag consultancy StoneX on Wednesday raised its estimate of Brazil’s soybean crop by about 1% to 179.7 MMTs, while also lowering its estimate of the corn crop in the country by about 0.3 MMTs to 135.7 MMTs. The figures compare to the USDA at 180.0 and 132.0 MMTs respectively.
Active/potentially severe weather looks to be a theme across the Midwest again on Thursday, as low pressure working through the region will continue to provide additional rainfall and storm risk to most of the country east of MN/IA/MO. The region then looks to see one more storm system work through Saturday into Sunday, but then models have things settling down a bit again into next week, with a cooler, drier week likely on deck.
Argentina will see rainfall throughout most of the central and eastern parts of the country into the first part of next week, possibly leading to further harvest delays, while the forecast for Brazil continues to be rather variable on precipitation amounts/locations. Today, the model is back drier throughout most of the central and southern regions into next week while it keeps raining further north but has moisture filling back in the south by the end of next week and the following weekend.
Have a great day.
View All News >