Good morning.
Much like was the case for most of the day on Monday, grain and soy markets at the CBOT are quietly mixed in low volume again this morning to get Tuesday trade started, with little in the way of new overnight news and generally the same trading themes present that were seen throughout most of the day yesterday. War in Iran has led to considerable angst among grain traders in recent weeks, and new threats from President Trump on Monday have brought this angst to the forefront again the last couple days, making choppy, two-sided price action again the most likely outcome for the day. Corn futures this morning are trading 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are trading unchanged to a penny higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 3-4 cents lower.
Yesterday afternoon’s first crop progress update of the season showed corn planting at 3% complete, which is up 1% on both last year and the five-year average, while spring wheat planting was seen at 2% complete, 1% behind both last year and the five-year average. Winter wheat conditions in the G/EX category were seen at 35%, well behind the 48% seen this week last year.
Private South American consultancy AgRural said on Monday that Brazil soybean harvest had reached 82% complete as of late last week, which compares to 87% complete a year ago as pace continues to lag. CONAB showed a similar figure in its weekly update and also said safrinha corn planting had nearly wrapped up at 99.2% complete.
Sources familiar with the matter said on Monday that Thailand, the world’s third largest palm oil producer, will, starting today, begin issuing export licenses to try and regulate shipments of crude palm oil amid an ongoing energy crisis caused by the war in Iran. The new system is expected to be in place for a year and replaces what has been a mostly permit-free export system in the country. Thailand is expected to produce around just under 4 million tons of crude palm oil this year.
According to Russia’s rail operator, transportation data for March shows exports of grains and grain products up some 17% from February to 2.6 million tons. April shipments, estimated to be between 4.0-4.5 million tons, are expected to increase even further as shipments seasonally pick up.
In non-market related news this morning, the four astronauts on NASA’s Artemis II mission flew deeper into space on Monday than any humans ever had before at 252,756 miles, surpassing the previous record of roughly 248,000 miles set during the Apollo 13 mission in the 70’s. The mission is on day six of a planned 10-day journey, with the crew expected to re-enter Earth’s atmosphere and splash down off the coast of California sometime on Friday.
Model runs are little changed this morning compared to yesterday’s versions across the Midwest, as snowfall across portions of southwest IA and into MO this morning and into this afternoon look to be the main talking points throughout the Corn Belt the next 24 hours. The area of impact from this system is not expected to be large, with there then not a lot in the way of Midwest precipitation the next couple days past there until a more pronounced low-pressure system works through the northern tier of the region Wednesday night into Thursday.
Models have moisture totals through the end of the weekend ranging anywhere from a half inch to an inch across a lot of the area, while some places, mostly further south, could see a heavier 2-3″. High pressure across the southeast keeps rainfall almost totally absent here, with dryness seen persisting from the FL panhandle to the Ohio River.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 04-07-2026
Good morning.
Much like was the case for most of the day on Monday, grain and soy markets at the CBOT are quietly mixed in low volume again this morning to get Tuesday trade started, with little in the way of new overnight news and generally the same trading themes present that were seen throughout most of the day yesterday. War in Iran has led to considerable angst among grain traders in recent weeks, and new threats from President Trump on Monday have brought this angst to the forefront again the last couple days, making choppy, two-sided price action again the most likely outcome for the day. Corn futures this morning are trading 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are trading unchanged to a penny higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 3-4 cents lower.
Yesterday afternoon’s first crop progress update of the season showed corn planting at 3% complete, which is up 1% on both last year and the five-year average, while spring wheat planting was seen at 2% complete, 1% behind both last year and the five-year average. Winter wheat conditions in the G/EX category were seen at 35%, well behind the 48% seen this week last year.
Private South American consultancy AgRural said on Monday that Brazil soybean harvest had reached 82% complete as of late last week, which compares to 87% complete a year ago as pace continues to lag. CONAB showed a similar figure in its weekly update and also said safrinha corn planting had nearly wrapped up at 99.2% complete.
Sources familiar with the matter said on Monday that Thailand, the world’s third largest palm oil producer, will, starting today, begin issuing export licenses to try and regulate shipments of crude palm oil amid an ongoing energy crisis caused by the war in Iran. The new system is expected to be in place for a year and replaces what has been a mostly permit-free export system in the country. Thailand is expected to produce around just under 4 million tons of crude palm oil this year.
According to Russia’s rail operator, transportation data for March shows exports of grains and grain products up some 17% from February to 2.6 million tons. April shipments, estimated to be between 4.0-4.5 million tons, are expected to increase even further as shipments seasonally pick up.
In non-market related news this morning, the four astronauts on NASA’s Artemis II mission flew deeper into space on Monday than any humans ever had before at 252,756 miles, surpassing the previous record of roughly 248,000 miles set during the Apollo 13 mission in the 70’s. The mission is on day six of a planned 10-day journey, with the crew expected to re-enter Earth’s atmosphere and splash down off the coast of California sometime on Friday.
Model runs are little changed this morning compared to yesterday’s versions across the Midwest, as snowfall across portions of southwest IA and into MO this morning and into this afternoon look to be the main talking points throughout the Corn Belt the next 24 hours. The area of impact from this system is not expected to be large, with there then not a lot in the way of Midwest precipitation the next couple days past there until a more pronounced low-pressure system works through the northern tier of the region Wednesday night into Thursday.
Models have moisture totals through the end of the weekend ranging anywhere from a half inch to an inch across a lot of the area, while some places, mostly further south, could see a heavier 2-3″. High pressure across the southeast keeps rainfall almost totally absent here, with dryness seen persisting from the FL panhandle to the Ohio River.
Have a great day.
View All News >