Good morning.
CBOT ag markets are mixed/mostly lower to start mid-week trade this morning, with the bean oil and wheat markets seeing a risk-off reaction to the overnight Iran news, while the corn and beans also had negative reactions early but are well off their lows already at this writing this morning. The two-week ceasefire announcement has produced the expected market reaction, but the question now becomes, does it last? Corn futures to start on Wednesday are trading 5-6 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 1-2 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 17-19 cents lower. Soybean oil is down around 2.50 cents/lb. and over a penny off the lows.
This morning’s weekly ethanol update from the EIA, with data for the week ending April 3rd, is expected to show average daily production in the week between 1.080-1.095 mil bbls, while stocks in the week are seen between 25.80-26.30 mil bbls. On average, both figures would be up from last week.
Traders see tomorrow’s April WASDE update, which will be the last before the initial estimates for the 2026/27 marketing year are released next month, is expected to show US corn ending stocks at 2.131 bil bu, soybean ending stocks at 349 mil bu and wheat ending stocks at 923 mil bu; all would be relatively unchanged compared to last month. World stocks are also expected to be near unchanged; corn is seen at 293.2 MMTs, soybeans are seen at 125.5 MMTs and wheat is seen at 277.4 MMTs.
Touched on this yesterday afternoon but Mato Grasso state’s IMEA ag agency on Tuesday said that final soybean production in the state this year reached 51.56 MMTs, which was a new record. While yields were up some 9% from the year prior to 66.03 bags/ha, planted area was also up some 1.7% from the year prior to 13.01 million hectares. For corn, the group pegged Mato Grosso production at 51.7 MMTs.
Monthly export data from the Brazilian Trade Ministry released this week for March showed soybean exports out of the country in the month at 14.518 MMTs, which was down 1% from the same month last year. Corn exports totaled 983k MTs, which was up 13% from last year, and meal exports were seen at 2.021 MMTs, which was up a little over 5% from last year.
Private Black Sea crop body Argus said on Wednesday that Russian wheat production in the 2026/27 season was forecast to reach 88.7 MMTs, up from a previous estimate of 86.5 MMTs but down slightly from 2025/26 production at 90.4 MMTs. The group cited increased planted area and better yield prospects than seen previously as reason for the increases following a virtual crop tour conducted in March.
Indonesia’s energy ministry this week set a 2028 target for the transition to B50 biofuel blending mandates, as part of an ongoing process to become more self-sufficient in energy production. The world’s largest palm oil producer had originally planned to implement B40 starting this year via a decree issued earlier in March but has since raised this to a 50% mandate as of July 1 as part of a wider plan to mitigate risks caused by the war in Iran.
Not necessarily related news, but the Goldman fund index roll begins today and is likely to last into the first part of next week, as fund managers begin moving positions out of the May contracts and into other deferred months ahead of first notice day later in April. These funds being long the markets, this means the May contracts could see pressure relative to July, which may have an impact on spread activity the rest of the week.
Weather forecasts this morning into the end of the week continue to call for around a half inch to an inch of rainfall in a corridor from KS to MI but are little changed otherwise as high pressure across the southeast continues to dominate the overall pattern. The ridging will also bring about gradually warming temperatures the rest of the week and into next week, with models showing notably lower odds now of additional cold air intrusions into the Midwest through the end of the month following the chill seen the first part of this week.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 04-08-2026
Good morning.
CBOT ag markets are mixed/mostly lower to start mid-week trade this morning, with the bean oil and wheat markets seeing a risk-off reaction to the overnight Iran news, while the corn and beans also had negative reactions early but are well off their lows already at this writing this morning. The two-week ceasefire announcement has produced the expected market reaction, but the question now becomes, does it last? Corn futures to start on Wednesday are trading 5-6 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 1-2 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 17-19 cents lower. Soybean oil is down around 2.50 cents/lb. and over a penny off the lows.
This morning’s weekly ethanol update from the EIA, with data for the week ending April 3rd, is expected to show average daily production in the week between 1.080-1.095 mil bbls, while stocks in the week are seen between 25.80-26.30 mil bbls. On average, both figures would be up from last week.
Traders see tomorrow’s April WASDE update, which will be the last before the initial estimates for the 2026/27 marketing year are released next month, is expected to show US corn ending stocks at 2.131 bil bu, soybean ending stocks at 349 mil bu and wheat ending stocks at 923 mil bu; all would be relatively unchanged compared to last month. World stocks are also expected to be near unchanged; corn is seen at 293.2 MMTs, soybeans are seen at 125.5 MMTs and wheat is seen at 277.4 MMTs.
Touched on this yesterday afternoon but Mato Grasso state’s IMEA ag agency on Tuesday said that final soybean production in the state this year reached 51.56 MMTs, which was a new record. While yields were up some 9% from the year prior to 66.03 bags/ha, planted area was also up some 1.7% from the year prior to 13.01 million hectares. For corn, the group pegged Mato Grosso production at 51.7 MMTs.
Monthly export data from the Brazilian Trade Ministry released this week for March showed soybean exports out of the country in the month at 14.518 MMTs, which was down 1% from the same month last year. Corn exports totaled 983k MTs, which was up 13% from last year, and meal exports were seen at 2.021 MMTs, which was up a little over 5% from last year.
Private Black Sea crop body Argus said on Wednesday that Russian wheat production in the 2026/27 season was forecast to reach 88.7 MMTs, up from a previous estimate of 86.5 MMTs but down slightly from 2025/26 production at 90.4 MMTs. The group cited increased planted area and better yield prospects than seen previously as reason for the increases following a virtual crop tour conducted in March.
Indonesia’s energy ministry this week set a 2028 target for the transition to B50 biofuel blending mandates, as part of an ongoing process to become more self-sufficient in energy production. The world’s largest palm oil producer had originally planned to implement B40 starting this year via a decree issued earlier in March but has since raised this to a 50% mandate as of July 1 as part of a wider plan to mitigate risks caused by the war in Iran.
Not necessarily related news, but the Goldman fund index roll begins today and is likely to last into the first part of next week, as fund managers begin moving positions out of the May contracts and into other deferred months ahead of first notice day later in April. These funds being long the markets, this means the May contracts could see pressure relative to July, which may have an impact on spread activity the rest of the week.
Weather forecasts this morning into the end of the week continue to call for around a half inch to an inch of rainfall in a corridor from KS to MI but are little changed otherwise as high pressure across the southeast continues to dominate the overall pattern. The ridging will also bring about gradually warming temperatures the rest of the week and into next week, with models showing notably lower odds now of additional cold air intrusions into the Midwest through the end of the month following the chill seen the first part of this week.
Have a great day.
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