Grain Comments: 04-09-2026

Good morning.

CBOT ag futures are quietly higher this morning ahead of what is expected to be another somewhat benign crop report out of the USDA later this morning. Balance sheets are expected to be little changed for the most part, with focus as it pertains to supply and demand, mostly shifted already to the new marketing year, which we will get our first look at in another month. Meanwhile, crude oil futures are seeing a bit of a dead-cat-bounce this morning following the lashing received on Wednesday, which is likely the source of the bulk of the buying seen in the ags overnight. Corn futures this morning are trading 1-2 cents higher, soybean futures are trading 2-4 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 4-7 cents higher.

This morning’s weekly export sales report for the week ending April 2nd is expected to show corn sales in the week between 750k-1.6 mil MTs, soybean sales between 200k-600k MTs, and wheat sales between 0-150k MTs; new crop wheat sales are seen between 150k-400k MTs.

Argentina’s Rosario Grain Exchange said on Wednesday that the country’s corn crop would likely reach a record 67 MMTs, which is up some 5 MMTs from a previous estimate and some 15 MMTs above the country’s previous record of 52.5 MMTs set in the 2023/24 season. The exchange said most of the increase was the result of more than a million additional hectares planted, which brings the total for the year to roughly 10.2 million.

Analysts see US crude oil exports possibly reaching record levels in the month of April, driven largely by increased demand out of Asia as buyers seek to diversify supply away from the Middle East. Due to relative reliability and availability, US supplies are expected to increasingly fill supply gaps caused by ongoing uncertainty in Iran.

FOMC minutes released on Wednesday showed Fed officials were largely united in holding interest rates steady last month, though they acknowledged significant risk exists due to the ongoing war in Iran. At the same time, ongoing inflation risks were also mentioned, with some feeling that a continued rise in energy prices could justify raising interest rates at some point later in the year. The Fed continues to signal a data-driven approach to future policy decisions.

Rains expected to impact the Midwest tonight into tomorrow are seen slightly further north this morning than they were yesterday, but the forecast is otherwise little changed in terms of timing and totals. The upper Midwest sees additional rains then Saturday to Sunday, but high pressure across the southeast keeps this part of the country almost completely dry through the weekend and into the first part of next week.

The upper part of the country along the border with Canada will continue to see some chances of cooler to more average air into the weekend and first part of next week, but otherwise, the other 90%+ of the country looks to see continued warmth into the weekend before low pressure brings cooler air into the western part of the country into next week. This cooler air looks to work east then into the end of next week but will be more “spring cool” than “winter cool”.

Have a great day.