Corn led what there was of dismal overnight trade volume with wheat leading losses; U.S. weather is generally bearish overall and ex-ports have been disappointing across the board. Big-time speculative fund net liquidation in the Disaggregated CFTC Report Friday is lending some support with corn sitting at an uncommon managed money net futures negative. 3
Rains did linger over the weekend in the northern Midwest and southern Plains, heavy in the far ECB as well as the southern U.S. The next chances move in from the west and southwest Thursday/Friday, with extended maps now showing a fairly active pattern as well, along with warm temperatures.
Now that the calendar has turned to May, we will start to see a change in trade focus, one of the main is the US planting pace. Trade is not as concerned with delays in April as there is more time to get crops seeded. Once we get to May and start to approach final planting dates for insurance the attitude of the market changes. For the most part planting is still expected to get done this month, but there may be some shifting of acres from corn to soybeans, especially in the Upper Plains. Plantings were late last year though, and yields were still very high and above trend, with some seeing record corn production. We will also start to see more interest on the May WASDE report that will be released on the 12th. This is the most watched supply and demand report of the year as it contains the initial new crop balance sheets. We have already received the Ag Outlook Forum data and prospective plantings reports, but the USDA will now compile all of this data to form its official 2023/24 balance sheet projections. Initial thoughts are we will see higher ending stocks on all three major crops.
Have a great day!