Grain Comments: 05-02-2023

Good morning:

The most traded (by far) July soybean contract is bouncing convincingly off Friday’s $14/bu lows despite little fresh fundamental news to aid, though domestic crush continues to be solid with carryout tight overall.

Rains continue to move out of the far NE belt, leaving a dry mid-week period, before the next system moves in from the SW Thursday and provides some decent amounts for the NW and southern belt in particular. 6–10-day maps remain wet with mixed precipitation for the 11-15 day, while temperatures hold safely above-normal for the Plains and belt through the middle of the month.

A decent amount of corn and soybean planting took place in the US last week even with less-than-ideal weather conditions. The US corn crop is now 26% planted compared to 12% last week. This is equal to the five-year average. Corn is also 6% emerged compared to last week’s 3% and the 5% average. Soybean planting reached 19% as of Sunday evening, up 10% on the week and well ahead of the 11% five-year average pace. Spring wheat is just 12% planted, 10% less than normal due to wet conditions across the upper US Plains. The winter wheat rating improved 2 points on the week to total 28% Good/Excellent following rains in the southern US. The most interest in planting now is what will take place this week. Several farmers from across the Midwest have been waiting for warmer temperatures to start seeding crops. Forecasts now indicate warmer temperatures will settle in across the US for the next several days to allow planting to accelerate. This should allow the planting of both corn and soybeans to be complete in a timely manner. The main areas of concern on all fieldwork are the Upper Plains and in regions where flooding is taking place. It is quite possible we could see acreage shifts in these regions if current conditions persist.

Have a great day!