Good morning.
Ag markets are seeing follow-through selling for the most part this morning to start Thursday trade, though they are not glued to the overnight lows made so far in most cases. With volume on the lower side already starting out, it will be interesting to see how much follow-through selling is seen today and tomorrow heading into the weekend amid a lot of the reasons behind it being ongoing developments in the Middle East. For this reason, headline risk is likely to continue to reign supreme into next week, when we then get the May WASDE update and the much-anticipated Trump-Xi summit in Beijing. Risk management, in our opinion, is the name of the game for the next 10-15 days. Corn futures to start Thursday morning are trading 3-4 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 4-5 cents lower, and Chicago wheat futures are 3-5 cents lower. Bean oil futures are down 60 points.
Weekly export sales data this morning for the week ending April 30 is expected to show corn sales in the week between 1.0-1.8 MMTs, soybean sales between 200k-600k MTs, and wheat sales between 200k-500k MTs. The report will be out at the normal 7:30am central time.
An Argus media group analyst said on Wednesday that soybean planted area in Brazil in the 2026/27 season was expected to see just a marginal increase from the current season due to higher production costs and risks related to El Niño. The group did not print an actual area estimate in the update.
Russian rail operator Rusagrotrans said this week that wheat exports in the month of May were expected to total around 2.5 MMTs, which if accurate, would be up some 19% from the same month last year. However, the figure would be down from April, which totaled 3.95 MMTs.
In a quarterly update, StatsCanada said on Wednesday that wheat stocks as of March 31st totaled 19.47 MMTs, which is up 12% from March of last year. Canola stocks were seen at 9.99 MMTs, which is up 27% from last year, and soybean stocks were seen at 1.50 MMTs, down nearly 46% from last year.
In what is not likely to be a market moving event, Brazilian President Lula da Silva is scheduled to visit the White House on Thursday for meetings with President Trump aimed at reviving a relationship between the two countries that has grown shakier since Trump returned to office in January of last year. Said a Brazilian official familiar with the happenings, “We don’t know if the visit will help, but it’s more likely to help than doing nothing.”
Midwest weather for Thursday looks to be a bit of a mixed bag, with a line of storms seen possibly popping up in the west-central part of the region later in the day today that could impact parts of IA and IL. Rainfall totals from these storms are expected to be minimal, with this morning’s EU model showing just a trace tenth or two possible between now and tomorrow morning. The model has additional rains for the southeast today as the remnants of yesterday’s storms work off into the Atlantic but is otherwise drier through the southern part of the Midwest through the weekend and into the first part of next week.
Have a great day!
Grain Comments: 05-07-2026
Good morning.
Ag markets are seeing follow-through selling for the most part this morning to start Thursday trade, though they are not glued to the overnight lows made so far in most cases. With volume on the lower side already starting out, it will be interesting to see how much follow-through selling is seen today and tomorrow heading into the weekend amid a lot of the reasons behind it being ongoing developments in the Middle East. For this reason, headline risk is likely to continue to reign supreme into next week, when we then get the May WASDE update and the much-anticipated Trump-Xi summit in Beijing. Risk management, in our opinion, is the name of the game for the next 10-15 days. Corn futures to start Thursday morning are trading 3-4 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 4-5 cents lower, and Chicago wheat futures are 3-5 cents lower. Bean oil futures are down 60 points.
Weekly export sales data this morning for the week ending April 30 is expected to show corn sales in the week between 1.0-1.8 MMTs, soybean sales between 200k-600k MTs, and wheat sales between 200k-500k MTs. The report will be out at the normal 7:30am central time.
An Argus media group analyst said on Wednesday that soybean planted area in Brazil in the 2026/27 season was expected to see just a marginal increase from the current season due to higher production costs and risks related to El Niño. The group did not print an actual area estimate in the update.
Russian rail operator Rusagrotrans said this week that wheat exports in the month of May were expected to total around 2.5 MMTs, which if accurate, would be up some 19% from the same month last year. However, the figure would be down from April, which totaled 3.95 MMTs.
In a quarterly update, StatsCanada said on Wednesday that wheat stocks as of March 31st totaled 19.47 MMTs, which is up 12% from March of last year. Canola stocks were seen at 9.99 MMTs, which is up 27% from last year, and soybean stocks were seen at 1.50 MMTs, down nearly 46% from last year.
In what is not likely to be a market moving event, Brazilian President Lula da Silva is scheduled to visit the White House on Thursday for meetings with President Trump aimed at reviving a relationship between the two countries that has grown shakier since Trump returned to office in January of last year. Said a Brazilian official familiar with the happenings, “We don’t know if the visit will help, but it’s more likely to help than doing nothing.”
Midwest weather for Thursday looks to be a bit of a mixed bag, with a line of storms seen possibly popping up in the west-central part of the region later in the day today that could impact parts of IA and IL. Rainfall totals from these storms are expected to be minimal, with this morning’s EU model showing just a trace tenth or two possible between now and tomorrow morning. The model has additional rains for the southeast today as the remnants of yesterday’s storms work off into the Atlantic but is otherwise drier through the southern part of the Midwest through the weekend and into the first part of next week.
Have a great day!
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