Good morning.
It’s been a quiet, low volume affair throughout the overnight session to begin wrapping up the week this morning, as markets have been bouncing around either side of unchanged for the past several hours now on a general continuation of the trade themes discussed yesterday and throughout much of the week this week. Attacks between the US and Iran remain ongoing as of last night, which has seemingly lessened the chances that a peace deal is reached this weekend, but traders are still waiting for an answer one way or the other before placing any sizeable new bets in the market. Corn futures this morning are trading 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 2-3 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading unchanged to a penny higher.
Weekly crop data from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange showed a notable increase in soybean harvest pace over the last week, jumping from 18.3% to 34.3%. Corn harvest advanced just 2% on the week to 30%, while the group made no production updates to either crop.
Private Russian consultancy IKAR this week lowered their Russian wheat export forecast for the current season that ends in June by 1.5 MMTs to 44.5 MMTs, citing strength in the ruble, relatively low export prices, and lessening global demand. The group added that rising logistics costs were also to blame, but that the reduction shouldn’t be taken as overly significant and that farmers could benefit by holding crops into next year.
Agroconsult, a private South American consultancy, said this week that they see safrinah corn production in Brazil in the current season reaching 112.1 MMTs, which if accurate, would be down some 10% from last year’s record. Total production was seen at 140.5 MMTs, which compares to the current USDA estimate of 132.0 MMTs.
Staying in Brazil, government export data for the month of April showed soybean exports out of the country in the month at 16.747 MMTs, which is up nearly 10% from the same month last year and also a new record for any month. Corn exports were seen at 474k MTs, up 166% from last year, while cotton exports were up 55% at 370k MTs, and meal exports were up more than 13% at 2.474 MMTs.
Beef producers in the US are hopeful next week’s Trump-Xi summit in China includes discussions on renewing export licenses that were allowed to expire last year, after having been largely locked out of the market ever since. More than 400 beef plants lost export eligibility over the past year, which accounts for roughly 65% of the total that were once registered.
Weekly USDA data shows barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending May 2nd totaled 709k tons, which was up a little more than 11% from the week prior. Corn shipments in the week were seen at 457k tons, up 7% from the week prior, and soybean shipments were seen at 237k tons, which were up 20% from the week prior. STL barge freight rates were quoted at $18.23/short ton, which was up 8 cents on the week prior.
Midwest weather will have a more summer-like feel than previous days this week, at least on Saturday, as western US heat is able to work more into the central and east-central parts of the country before cooler air comes back in on Sunday. The first half of next week also looks to be cooler, before models see warmer temps then settling in for the Midwest into the end of next week and then into the back half of the month.
On the precipitation side, this morning’s EU model run has additional rains through the southeast and along the Gulf, while there is also light precipitation potential through the east-central part of the Corn Belt this afternoon and into this evening. The model has better chances of rain than for the Midwest Tuesday/Wednesday next week, but there isn’t great agreement on the timing and location of this system this morning, which is keeping our confidence low.
Have a great day!
Grain Comments: 05-08-2026
Good morning.
It’s been a quiet, low volume affair throughout the overnight session to begin wrapping up the week this morning, as markets have been bouncing around either side of unchanged for the past several hours now on a general continuation of the trade themes discussed yesterday and throughout much of the week this week. Attacks between the US and Iran remain ongoing as of last night, which has seemingly lessened the chances that a peace deal is reached this weekend, but traders are still waiting for an answer one way or the other before placing any sizeable new bets in the market. Corn futures this morning are trading 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 2-3 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading unchanged to a penny higher.
Weekly crop data from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange showed a notable increase in soybean harvest pace over the last week, jumping from 18.3% to 34.3%. Corn harvest advanced just 2% on the week to 30%, while the group made no production updates to either crop.
Private Russian consultancy IKAR this week lowered their Russian wheat export forecast for the current season that ends in June by 1.5 MMTs to 44.5 MMTs, citing strength in the ruble, relatively low export prices, and lessening global demand. The group added that rising logistics costs were also to blame, but that the reduction shouldn’t be taken as overly significant and that farmers could benefit by holding crops into next year.
Agroconsult, a private South American consultancy, said this week that they see safrinah corn production in Brazil in the current season reaching 112.1 MMTs, which if accurate, would be down some 10% from last year’s record. Total production was seen at 140.5 MMTs, which compares to the current USDA estimate of 132.0 MMTs.
Staying in Brazil, government export data for the month of April showed soybean exports out of the country in the month at 16.747 MMTs, which is up nearly 10% from the same month last year and also a new record for any month. Corn exports were seen at 474k MTs, up 166% from last year, while cotton exports were up 55% at 370k MTs, and meal exports were up more than 13% at 2.474 MMTs.
Beef producers in the US are hopeful next week’s Trump-Xi summit in China includes discussions on renewing export licenses that were allowed to expire last year, after having been largely locked out of the market ever since. More than 400 beef plants lost export eligibility over the past year, which accounts for roughly 65% of the total that were once registered.
Weekly USDA data shows barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending May 2nd totaled 709k tons, which was up a little more than 11% from the week prior. Corn shipments in the week were seen at 457k tons, up 7% from the week prior, and soybean shipments were seen at 237k tons, which were up 20% from the week prior. STL barge freight rates were quoted at $18.23/short ton, which was up 8 cents on the week prior.
Midwest weather will have a more summer-like feel than previous days this week, at least on Saturday, as western US heat is able to work more into the central and east-central parts of the country before cooler air comes back in on Sunday. The first half of next week also looks to be cooler, before models see warmer temps then settling in for the Midwest into the end of next week and then into the back half of the month.
On the precipitation side, this morning’s EU model run has additional rains through the southeast and along the Gulf, while there is also light precipitation potential through the east-central part of the Corn Belt this afternoon and into this evening. The model has better chances of rain than for the Midwest Tuesday/Wednesday next week, but there isn’t great agreement on the timing and location of this system this morning, which is keeping our confidence low.
Have a great day!
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