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Grain Comments: 06.15.23

Corn, soybeans, and wheat all higher over night. Corn up 8-9, soybeans up 15-18, wheat up 7-8. Equity futures are lower overnight as the market digests the Federal Reserve rate decision and outlook.

 

Today’s Reports: Export Sales, NOPA Crush, Retail Sales, Initial Jobless Claims.

 

  • 2023 RFS decision deadline moved to June 21
  • Weather models indicate wet second half of June

 

Weather is the main driver of the market in the near term. The models – most prominently the GFS and the European model – seem to have a different outlook each day on how much precipitation we can expect for the latter part of June. Many parts of the Midwest remain very dry and the market had hung its hat on a wet forecast as we enter July. However, some days the models indicate the system, and the rain, could miss most of Illinois. Crop conditions are expected to deteriorate once again on Monday, and if the trend of no rain continues the market will be forced to begin thinking about revising yields lower.

 

Highlights

* Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged

* Fed sees two more rate hikes this year

* Weather models showing wet second half of June

* US Farm Bill expires in 4 months

* No indication of potential program changes

* RFS released on or before June 21

 

Corn

* YTD corn values -9.5%

* Some new sales occurring at current corn prices

* Iowa and Minnesota corn basis soft

* Brazil Safrinha harvest gaining momentum though less than 10% harvested

* Export sales estimated at -100k – 600k mt

 

Soybeans

* YTD futures -7.6%

* NOPA crush volume expected to be a record 176.6 mbu for May

* Brazil values weaken

* Groups push White House for more biofuel use

* Export sales estimated at 300k – 900k mt

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