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Grain Comments: 06.16.23

Corn, soybeans, and wheat all higher overnight. Corn up 8 to 12, soybeans up 16-20, wheat up 8-10. Equity futures are flat overnight. Crude and the dollar are steady as well.

 

Today’s Reports: Commitment of Traders

 

  • No markets on Sunday night or Monday. 
  • Markets re-open Monday night at 7 pm CST
  • Weather still the main driver for prices

 

The weather continue to be drier than desired. The 7-day precip map does not show much moisture for he dry areas of Iowa, northern Illinois, and southern Minnesota. Producers are hoping for a surprise from the rain chances this weekend. Temps look to warm in the extended forecast.  The extra day off on Monday will add to the trading volatility for next week. December corn has a chance to trade back above the February spring average price of $5.91, keeping the 50+ year streak intact.

 

Highlights

* S&P closed at highest level since April 2022

*Two FED members speak today

*Heat continues across China, India, and Europe

*Producer selling of new crop increased yesterday

*Old crop spreads continue to erode

*July options expire next Friday

 

Corn

*Overnight trade shows Dec. corn at the highest level since late Feb.

*Next resistance is the Feb channel from $5.90 to $5.98

*Old crop corn basis continues to weaken across the Midwest

*Argentina 38% done on corn harvest

*U.S. old crop corn exports still paltry

* Brazil producer slow to sell 2nd corn harvest, space expected to be an issue

 

Soybeans

*Overnight trade shows Nov. beans at highest level since early April

*November has rallied $1.85 since May 31st low

*Nov. trades over 100-day MA of $12.95 overnight.

*Nov. 200-day MA sits above at $13.35

*Argentina bean harvest is 98% done

*Brazil bean premiums weak again this week on increased movement

*NOPA crush for May yesterday at record for the month at 177.9 mbu.

*Data from new plant in Shell Rock, IA included for first time

 

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