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Grain Comments: 06-20-23

Good morning:

Corn, soybeans, and wheat opened up higher last night after the long weekend break. The gains were not held, however, and the market is down this morning with corn down 4-5, soybeans down 9 to 12, and wheat down 10-11. Equity futures are also lower overnight to start the short week. Crude trading a couple cents on either side of unchanged.

Markets opened up higher last night but have been unable to hold the gains. Portions of the Midwest received much needed rain over the weekend, with parts of Iowa receiving up to two inches. The weather continues to be drier than desired, and temperatures headed into the end of the week are at or near 90 in most places in the Midwest. Models have been predicting rain into the end of this week and the market will wait to see how those rains materialize.

Highlights

*Financial markets will continue to figure out the direction of Fed policy – whether or not they will indeed hike rates again or leave them unchanged the rest of this year.

*Producer selling of new crop increased last week

*Old crop spreads find support this morning

*July options expire next Friday

Corn

*Conditions are expected to show another decline in today’s report

*Some states could see as much as a 5% drop.

*Current prices look attractive for producer selling

*Old crop corn basis continues to weaken across the Midwest

*Export inspections expected to show U.S. old crop corn exports still paltry

* Brazil producer slow to sell 2nd corn harvest, space expected to be an issue

Soybeans

*November beans falling this morning, but have have rallied $1.85 since May 31st low coining into today.

*Argentina bean harvest is 98% done

*Just 20.5 mmt production expected in Argentina – down almost 60% from initial projections.

*Brazil bean premiums weak again this week on increased movement

*NOPA crush oil stocks reported below lowest trade estimate for May, supportive for bean oil.

*Soybean crop conditions expected to decline in today’s report.

Wheat

*Argentina wheat planting at 40% complete

*Southern IL wheat harvest will be active next week

*Early yield reports are very good

*Russia continues to limit new inspections in grain corridor

*Wheat prices remain volatile

Livestock

* Aug hogs close at highest level since May 3rd

*No deliveries seen yet against June live cattle. LTD is June 30th.

*Feeder cattle under pressure this week due to higher corn

 

Have a great day!

 

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