Grain Comments: 07-11-2023

Good morning:

Corn spiked lower on the opening last night thanks to re-bounding condition ratings, but the soybean bulls won out again ahead of the USDA report tomorrow; the trade is looking for 2023/24 ending stocks.

Rains fell in NE and along with MN/IA border yesterday, moving through the belt with good coverage through the weekend; 6–10-day maps look more mixed precipitation wise, then drier for the 11–15-day period. Temps remain cool into the 6-10 day as well, with temperatures warming up into the 11-15 day.

Traders continue to position ahead of the July WASDE report tomorrow. Funds remain long the soybean market and have a small, short position in the corn market. Tomorrow’s report contains more bullish potential for the soybean market. If the soybean yield is lowered, the crop will have no room for error the rest of the season. The dynamics have changed in the soybean market with so many fewer acres reported in the June 30 acreage report. The backdrop is less bullish for corn if yields are lowered tomorrow. The export demand for corn is sluggish to say the least. Even if yields are lowered, the increase in planted area as well as the tepid demand would still likely result in a healthy balance sheet with an elevated stocks-to-use ratio. The 11-12 day forecast trends drier, and scattered rain is expected across the corn belt into the weekend. The weather remains a factor as we move into July – a critical development period for corn.

Have a great day!