Grain Comments: 07-12-2023

Good morning:

The soybean complex continues to lead the way with only hours to go before the USDA needs to integrate that soybean acreage number into the S&D table; corn and wheat are much less hopeful for a bullish result.

Big-time rains are moving through the heart of the corn belt this morning and continue to shift southeast through tomorrow, followed by another wave tomorrow night through Friday, and a wet overall forecast over the next ten days. 11–15-day maps are more mixed precipitation wise. Temperatures remain normal to below through the 6-10 day, then warm up a bit for the 11–15-day span.

Welcome to a packed day of agricultural and economic data. The highlights for today are US inflation data, which will be released at 7:30am CST this morning. Then all eyes turn to the July WASDE report set for release at 11am CST. We do not often see yield revisions this early in the season, but due to the early stress on this year’s crop we may see yield estimates revised lower in this morning’s report. At his point the bearish surprise would be if USDA did not revise yields lower. Against the backdrop of uncertain production is sluggish demand. Export figures for both the new crop and old crop are below expectations, and it remains unclear when the trend will turn. The dynamics of the corn market are heavy supply with the additional acres and poor export demand, so while a cut in yields is supportive it will likely remain difficult to move dramatically higher off of current prices. Soybeans have more of an issue on the supply side, and much more supportive demand fundamentals so the market is able to move higher on the prospect of lower yields. The forecast brings scattered rain to the Midwest in the near to medium term, and heat returns to the forecast as well. After the report it will be back to watching and trading the weather forecast in the near term.

Have a great day!