Good morning.
Whether you want to call it turn-around-Tuesday or a dead cat bounce, ag markets are slightly higher to start the second day of the week in classic fashion. Monday’s lashing accelerated into the close, which sometimes signals traders took things too far, too fast. But, until managed money traders see some fundamental reason to cover short positions, rallies are likely limited to bouts of profit taking. The current US Midwest forecast is non-threatening, and record yields remain a possibility as of today. Recent developments surrounding former President Donald Trump have also added to the bearish backdrop, as the trade sees a return to office for the former Republican leader as a likely precursor to the resumption of the trade war, he started with China last time he was in office. Corn futures this morning is trading 1-3 cents higher, soybean futures are trading 2-3 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is down 1-2 cents. New crop beans and September wheat are the only markets that made new lows overnight. Products are mixed, soybean meal is unchanged, and soybean oil is up 20-30 points. Outside markets are mixed as well, crude oil futures are down around $1.40/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 100 points, and the US$ index is up 5 points. Spot crude oil made fresh three-week lows overnight.
Monday afternoon’s crop progress report did not offer much excitement, as both corn and soybean conditions in the g/ex category came in unchanged from last week at 68% respectively as of Sunday July 14th.
At the state level, biggest increases on the week in corn conditions were seen in North Dakota (+7% g/ex) and Illinois (+6%). Indiana was unchanged at 67%. Biggest decreases on the week were in Texas (-12%), Ohio (-7%), and Tennessee (-6%).
For soybeans, biggest increases on the week were seen in North Carolina (+8% g/ex), Illinois (+7%), and North Dakota (+4%). Biggest decreases were seen in Ohio (-9%), Iowa (-4%), and Wisconsin (-4%).
Corn silking advanced 17% on the week to 41% (40% last year), while the amount of corn in the dough stage went from 3% to 8% (6% last year). The number of soybeans blooming went from 34% to 51% (51% last year), while the amount of the crop setting pods doubled from 9% to 18% (17% last year).
Winter wheat harvest continues to chug along, advancing 8% on the week to 71% complete. Just 53% of the crop was harvested as of this week last year. And Spring wheat conditions improved 2% to 77% g/ex.
According to Brazilian consultancy AgRural, 74% of the country’s second corn crop harvest had been completed as of July 11th, up 11% from the previous week. Just 36% of the crop had been harvested as of the same week last year.
Russian ag consultancy IKAR raised their estimate of the Russian wheat crop on Tuesday from 82 mmt’s to 83.2 mmt’s; the group cited better than expected yields in the Volga regions as reason for the increase.
Former President Donald Trump made his first public appearance since the weekend’s attempted assassination attempt; he did not speak, but was seen alongside his newly announced Vice President, J.D. Vance.
Another active night of weather was seen across the Midwest Monday night, with three tornado reports and nearly 700 wind reports according to the storm prediction center.
24-hour satellite data shows rains impacted western IA, most of IL, and western IN. Totals ranged from 0.25-1.5″, with locally heavier totals of up to 8″ in parts of western IL. Scattered showers were also seen yesterday across the Southeast, as well as the Plains and western Kansas.
Models are also wetter for the remainder of this week than was advertised Monday, with both the EU and the GFS seeing an additional 0.5-2″ for MO/IL/IN/OH through Friday night.
Week-two forecasts are little changed, with models continuing to show a wetter bias in the East and Southeast, while the Western half of the country sees a drier bias.
A cold front moves south and east out of Canada beginning today, which will drop high temps for much of the Corn Belt into the low 80’s for the remainder of the week. Cool air is then seen remaining for the eastern half of the country through the start of next week, which will be beneficial for crops. The west stays hot.
Only international update overnight was a slightly wetter trend for northern Russian wheat areas, which would be welcome. Southern areas east of the Black Sea continue to be short changed. South America has also been trending slightly warmer following a couple weeks of bitter cold.
Have a great day!
Grain Comments: 07-16-2024
Good morning.
Whether you want to call it turn-around-Tuesday or a dead cat bounce, ag markets are slightly higher to start the second day of the week in classic fashion. Monday’s lashing accelerated into the close, which sometimes signals traders took things too far, too fast. But, until managed money traders see some fundamental reason to cover short positions, rallies are likely limited to bouts of profit taking. The current US Midwest forecast is non-threatening, and record yields remain a possibility as of today. Recent developments surrounding former President Donald Trump have also added to the bearish backdrop, as the trade sees a return to office for the former Republican leader as a likely precursor to the resumption of the trade war, he started with China last time he was in office. Corn futures this morning is trading 1-3 cents higher, soybean futures are trading 2-3 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is down 1-2 cents. New crop beans and September wheat are the only markets that made new lows overnight. Products are mixed, soybean meal is unchanged, and soybean oil is up 20-30 points. Outside markets are mixed as well, crude oil futures are down around $1.40/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 100 points, and the US$ index is up 5 points. Spot crude oil made fresh three-week lows overnight.
Monday afternoon’s crop progress report did not offer much excitement, as both corn and soybean conditions in the g/ex category came in unchanged from last week at 68% respectively as of Sunday July 14th.
At the state level, biggest increases on the week in corn conditions were seen in North Dakota (+7% g/ex) and Illinois (+6%). Indiana was unchanged at 67%. Biggest decreases on the week were in Texas (-12%), Ohio (-7%), and Tennessee (-6%).
For soybeans, biggest increases on the week were seen in North Carolina (+8% g/ex), Illinois (+7%), and North Dakota (+4%). Biggest decreases were seen in Ohio (-9%), Iowa (-4%), and Wisconsin (-4%).
Corn silking advanced 17% on the week to 41% (40% last year), while the amount of corn in the dough stage went from 3% to 8% (6% last year). The number of soybeans blooming went from 34% to 51% (51% last year), while the amount of the crop setting pods doubled from 9% to 18% (17% last year).
Winter wheat harvest continues to chug along, advancing 8% on the week to 71% complete. Just 53% of the crop was harvested as of this week last year. And Spring wheat conditions improved 2% to 77% g/ex.
According to Brazilian consultancy AgRural, 74% of the country’s second corn crop harvest had been completed as of July 11th, up 11% from the previous week. Just 36% of the crop had been harvested as of the same week last year.
Russian ag consultancy IKAR raised their estimate of the Russian wheat crop on Tuesday from 82 mmt’s to 83.2 mmt’s; the group cited better than expected yields in the Volga regions as reason for the increase.
Former President Donald Trump made his first public appearance since the weekend’s attempted assassination attempt; he did not speak, but was seen alongside his newly announced Vice President, J.D. Vance.
Another active night of weather was seen across the Midwest Monday night, with three tornado reports and nearly 700 wind reports according to the storm prediction center.
24-hour satellite data shows rains impacted western IA, most of IL, and western IN. Totals ranged from 0.25-1.5″, with locally heavier totals of up to 8″ in parts of western IL. Scattered showers were also seen yesterday across the Southeast, as well as the Plains and western Kansas.
Models are also wetter for the remainder of this week than was advertised Monday, with both the EU and the GFS seeing an additional 0.5-2″ for MO/IL/IN/OH through Friday night.
Week-two forecasts are little changed, with models continuing to show a wetter bias in the East and Southeast, while the Western half of the country sees a drier bias.
A cold front moves south and east out of Canada beginning today, which will drop high temps for much of the Corn Belt into the low 80’s for the remainder of the week. Cool air is then seen remaining for the eastern half of the country through the start of next week, which will be beneficial for crops. The west stays hot.
Only international update overnight was a slightly wetter trend for northern Russian wheat areas, which would be welcome. Southern areas east of the Black Sea continue to be short changed. South America has also been trending slightly warmer following a couple weeks of bitter cold.
Have a great day!
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