Good morning.
Ag futures have again traded higher in the overnight markets, with a close in the green today possibly signaling a short-term low for corn and soybeans. August beans need to see a trade above 11.02 1/2 to fill the gap left from Monday’s open, which would be a good sign technically. On the other end, the lows made Monday are seen as major support, with a failure of these levels likely leading to further downward pressure. As the funds remain sellers and the weather forecast remains unthreatening, today’s trade will likely be choppy on day two of the rally. Corn futures are trading 2-4 cents higher, soybean futures are trading 5-10 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is up 8-9 cents. Products are mixed, soybean meal is unchanged to down $1/ton, and soybean oil is up 40-50 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are up 20-30 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 100 points, and the US$ index is down 50-60 points. The NASDAQ is down 300 points, and the S&P500 is down 50 points. New six-week lows for the $ index overnight.
This morning’s weekly ethanol production report for the week ending July 12th is expected to show daily production in a range of 1.050-1.069 mil bbls. Stocks for the week are seen between 23.00-23.753 mil bbls. On average, production is seen slightly higher from last week, while stocks are seen slightly lower.
According to cash sources, Chinese buyers booked as many as 75 cargoes of Brazilian soybeans in the first two weeks of July, mostly for delivery in August; some were for delivery next year. A weakening Brazilian Real has made their crops increasingly competitive globally.
Ukraine’s Agrarian Council, the country’s major ag producer group, said yesterday it could see corn yields 30-35% lower in the coming season due to excessive heat and drought. Forecasters say temps in the southern part of the country in the first two weeks of July came close to the all-time records.
Ukraine exported 2.3 mmt’s of ag goods in the first two weeks of July, compared with 5 mmt’s total in the month of June. Most of this was via the Black Sea ports, and included 777k mt’s of corn, 767.239k mt’s of wheat, and 288.613k mt’s of barley.
Russia’s ag ministry raised the duty on Russian wheat 4.7% to 1,780.5 rubles/ton starting today, July 17th, and running through July 23rd. Duties remain 0 on corn and barley.
Cargill announced that construction of its canola processing plant in Saskatchewan, Canada had reached 50% complete, with operations set to begin in 2025. The plant will process nearly 1 mil metric tons of canola per year.
The tech-laden NASDAQ is sharply lower this morning on news that the Biden administration was considering trade restrictions on China if companies continue giving the country access to advanced semiconductor technology.
Former Trump rivals Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis gave their praises to the Republican nomination on Tuesday night at the RNC, saying he was the best man to be the next president.
The CME’s Fed Watch tool shows there is now a 100% chance of a rate cut in September, compared to just 73.2% one week ago. Data of late continues to show inflation working closer to the Fed’s 2% target, with Canada yesterday matching its lowest annual inflation number in the last 12 months at 2.7%.
Satellite data shows storms continued to provide rainfall to generally the southern half of the US on Tuesday; 24-hour totals were seen in a range of 0.25-2″, with some local areas receiving upwards of 6-8″. The Plains also saw scattered rains on Tuesday, as well as Florida and the southeast.
Things look to calm down the remainder of the week, with additional moisture through Friday night confined mostly to the south and southeast. The Corn Belt sees a cooler/drier forecast into next week, with the models in good agreement.
Still not a lot of updates on the week two outlooks, with all three of the CPC, the GFS, and the EU models all in general agreement on a wetter southeast and drier northwest pattern for the country into the end of the month. Dryness in the northwestern Corn Belt shouldn’t be a short-term concern following abundant rain in June.
Temps began cooling for the Midwest yesterday and will continue to do so through the rest of the week; a large majority of the Corn Belt will see nighttime lows in the lower 60’s to upper 50’s through Saturday.
On the international weather front, models are beginning to trend wetter for areas east of the Black Sea, which is a welcome development. Temps in this area remain above average. Otherwise, forecast for most other areas is unchanged from yesterday.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 07-17-2024
Good morning.
Ag futures have again traded higher in the overnight markets, with a close in the green today possibly signaling a short-term low for corn and soybeans. August beans need to see a trade above 11.02 1/2 to fill the gap left from Monday’s open, which would be a good sign technically. On the other end, the lows made Monday are seen as major support, with a failure of these levels likely leading to further downward pressure. As the funds remain sellers and the weather forecast remains unthreatening, today’s trade will likely be choppy on day two of the rally. Corn futures are trading 2-4 cents higher, soybean futures are trading 5-10 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is up 8-9 cents. Products are mixed, soybean meal is unchanged to down $1/ton, and soybean oil is up 40-50 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are up 20-30 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 100 points, and the US$ index is down 50-60 points. The NASDAQ is down 300 points, and the S&P500 is down 50 points. New six-week lows for the $ index overnight.
This morning’s weekly ethanol production report for the week ending July 12th is expected to show daily production in a range of 1.050-1.069 mil bbls. Stocks for the week are seen between 23.00-23.753 mil bbls. On average, production is seen slightly higher from last week, while stocks are seen slightly lower.
According to cash sources, Chinese buyers booked as many as 75 cargoes of Brazilian soybeans in the first two weeks of July, mostly for delivery in August; some were for delivery next year. A weakening Brazilian Real has made their crops increasingly competitive globally.
Ukraine’s Agrarian Council, the country’s major ag producer group, said yesterday it could see corn yields 30-35% lower in the coming season due to excessive heat and drought. Forecasters say temps in the southern part of the country in the first two weeks of July came close to the all-time records.
Ukraine exported 2.3 mmt’s of ag goods in the first two weeks of July, compared with 5 mmt’s total in the month of June. Most of this was via the Black Sea ports, and included 777k mt’s of corn, 767.239k mt’s of wheat, and 288.613k mt’s of barley.
Russia’s ag ministry raised the duty on Russian wheat 4.7% to 1,780.5 rubles/ton starting today, July 17th, and running through July 23rd. Duties remain 0 on corn and barley.
Cargill announced that construction of its canola processing plant in Saskatchewan, Canada had reached 50% complete, with operations set to begin in 2025. The plant will process nearly 1 mil metric tons of canola per year.
The tech-laden NASDAQ is sharply lower this morning on news that the Biden administration was considering trade restrictions on China if companies continue giving the country access to advanced semiconductor technology.
Former Trump rivals Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis gave their praises to the Republican nomination on Tuesday night at the RNC, saying he was the best man to be the next president.
The CME’s Fed Watch tool shows there is now a 100% chance of a rate cut in September, compared to just 73.2% one week ago. Data of late continues to show inflation working closer to the Fed’s 2% target, with Canada yesterday matching its lowest annual inflation number in the last 12 months at 2.7%.
Satellite data shows storms continued to provide rainfall to generally the southern half of the US on Tuesday; 24-hour totals were seen in a range of 0.25-2″, with some local areas receiving upwards of 6-8″. The Plains also saw scattered rains on Tuesday, as well as Florida and the southeast.
Things look to calm down the remainder of the week, with additional moisture through Friday night confined mostly to the south and southeast. The Corn Belt sees a cooler/drier forecast into next week, with the models in good agreement.
Still not a lot of updates on the week two outlooks, with all three of the CPC, the GFS, and the EU models all in general agreement on a wetter southeast and drier northwest pattern for the country into the end of the month. Dryness in the northwestern Corn Belt shouldn’t be a short-term concern following abundant rain in June.
Temps began cooling for the Midwest yesterday and will continue to do so through the rest of the week; a large majority of the Corn Belt will see nighttime lows in the lower 60’s to upper 50’s through Saturday.
On the international weather front, models are beginning to trend wetter for areas east of the Black Sea, which is a welcome development. Temps in this area remain above average. Otherwise, forecast for most other areas is unchanged from yesterday.
Have a great day.
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