Good morning.
Choppy trade is continuing in the ag space to start Thursday, as corn and soybeans are correcting some of their gains from yesterday in what has been a light volume overnight trading session. With two sessions left in the week, key for the next couple days will be whether temporary upward momentum can be sustained long enough to close the open chart gaps in both markets, with the fundamentals still almost entirely focused on weather and crop sizes. The lingering wild card is trade deals, with Trump and his administration continuing to tout progress on a number of fronts, though known announcements so far have, for the most part, not included sizeable purchases of US ag products. Corn futures to start Thursday morning are trading unchanged to a penny lower, soybean futures are trading unchanged to a penny higher after being lower most of the night, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 3-4 cents lower. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down around 50 cents/ton and soybean oil is up 30-40 points. Outside markets are also quietly mixed – crude oil futures are up 30 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 80 points, and the US$ index is up 40-50 points; the S&P500 is unchanged, and the NASDAQ is up 20 points.
This morning’s weekly export sales report for the week ending July 10th is expected to show old crop corn sales in the week between 500k-1.2 mil MTs and old crop soybean sales are seen between 200k-600k MTs. On new crop, corn sales are seen between 400k-900k MTs, soybean sales are seen between 150k-400k MTs, and wheat sales are seen between 300k-700k MTs.
The Rosario Grain Exchange on Wednesday raised its estimate of Argentina’s soybean production in the current season by 1 MMT to 49.5 MMTs. The group also lowered the country’s 2025/26 wheat production forecast to 20.0 MMTs from 20.7 MMTs previously.
Sources familiar with the matter reported on Wednesday that Australian exporters are close to reaching an agreement with China to ship canola to the Asian nation, with 5 “trial cargoes” now pending to be shipped. Australia’s ag ministry said final details had not yet been worked out in regard to when the shipments were expected. Australia is the world’s second largest canola exporter, while China is the world’s largest importer.
In a letter to President Trump on Wednesday, the National Corn Growers Association warned that restrictions on widely used pesticides as a result of the ‘Make America Healthy Again’ initiative would put the US at severe risk of sharply higher food prices due to falls in production. In some cases, the group said yields could drop by as much as 70% should certain crop-growing chemicals be banned.
Shares of US ag stalwart ADM were sharply lower on Wednesday following an announcement by President Trump on Truth Social that beverage maker Coca Cola Co. had agreed to use cane sugar in its Coke beverages sold in the US. The company currently uses high-fructose corn syrup as its main sweetener but sells a version of Coke in Mexico that contains cane sugar.
The dollar index has seen a volatile few days of trade this week, as rumors yesterday of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s dismissal, which Trump later refuted as false, sent jitters through the market and led to rather choppy price action. Tensions between the two continue to simmer, but the on-again-off-again nature of Trump’s beratements have left traders somewhat confused as to what the actual outcome of this saga might be. It is clear Trump is unhappy with Powell, whom he appointed during his first term, but unclear is whether Trump would go so far as to actually fire him.
Thunderstorm activity continued to impact a bulk of the Midwest on Wednesday, especially in the east, where scattered totals of a tenth or two to an inch fell from WI to PA. KS/N MO also picked up decent rainfall totals, while the Dakotas and NE and most of IA/MN were mostly short-changed. More of the same is expected for the rest of the week and into the weekend, with the best coverage expected from a system working across the southern Midwest; totals will be more scattered further to the north.
Temperatures in the western Corn Belt on Thursday look to be well below those of recent days, as cooler air has worked into the area; highs from the Dakotas to MI will be in the 70’s for the most part, with overnight lows falling into the 40’s and 50’s further to the north in ND/MN. The cold air is not expected to last though, as highs return to more seasonally average levels by the end of the weekend and then return to above average into next week.
Week two precipitation maps, which now reach the end of the month, have trended drier for most of the Midwest all week, and now only show above average precipitation potential in the far northern part of the Corn Belt. The southern Midwest into the southeast and mid-south now see drier biases in the period, as southwestern US dryness is seen expanding east.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 07-17-2025
Good morning.
Choppy trade is continuing in the ag space to start Thursday, as corn and soybeans are correcting some of their gains from yesterday in what has been a light volume overnight trading session. With two sessions left in the week, key for the next couple days will be whether temporary upward momentum can be sustained long enough to close the open chart gaps in both markets, with the fundamentals still almost entirely focused on weather and crop sizes. The lingering wild card is trade deals, with Trump and his administration continuing to tout progress on a number of fronts, though known announcements so far have, for the most part, not included sizeable purchases of US ag products. Corn futures to start Thursday morning are trading unchanged to a penny lower, soybean futures are trading unchanged to a penny higher after being lower most of the night, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 3-4 cents lower. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down around 50 cents/ton and soybean oil is up 30-40 points. Outside markets are also quietly mixed – crude oil futures are up 30 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 80 points, and the US$ index is up 40-50 points; the S&P500 is unchanged, and the NASDAQ is up 20 points.
This morning’s weekly export sales report for the week ending July 10th is expected to show old crop corn sales in the week between 500k-1.2 mil MTs and old crop soybean sales are seen between 200k-600k MTs. On new crop, corn sales are seen between 400k-900k MTs, soybean sales are seen between 150k-400k MTs, and wheat sales are seen between 300k-700k MTs.
The Rosario Grain Exchange on Wednesday raised its estimate of Argentina’s soybean production in the current season by 1 MMT to 49.5 MMTs. The group also lowered the country’s 2025/26 wheat production forecast to 20.0 MMTs from 20.7 MMTs previously.
Sources familiar with the matter reported on Wednesday that Australian exporters are close to reaching an agreement with China to ship canola to the Asian nation, with 5 “trial cargoes” now pending to be shipped. Australia’s ag ministry said final details had not yet been worked out in regard to when the shipments were expected. Australia is the world’s second largest canola exporter, while China is the world’s largest importer.
In a letter to President Trump on Wednesday, the National Corn Growers Association warned that restrictions on widely used pesticides as a result of the ‘Make America Healthy Again’ initiative would put the US at severe risk of sharply higher food prices due to falls in production. In some cases, the group said yields could drop by as much as 70% should certain crop-growing chemicals be banned.
Shares of US ag stalwart ADM were sharply lower on Wednesday following an announcement by President Trump on Truth Social that beverage maker Coca Cola Co. had agreed to use cane sugar in its Coke beverages sold in the US. The company currently uses high-fructose corn syrup as its main sweetener but sells a version of Coke in Mexico that contains cane sugar.
The dollar index has seen a volatile few days of trade this week, as rumors yesterday of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s dismissal, which Trump later refuted as false, sent jitters through the market and led to rather choppy price action. Tensions between the two continue to simmer, but the on-again-off-again nature of Trump’s beratements have left traders somewhat confused as to what the actual outcome of this saga might be. It is clear Trump is unhappy with Powell, whom he appointed during his first term, but unclear is whether Trump would go so far as to actually fire him.
Thunderstorm activity continued to impact a bulk of the Midwest on Wednesday, especially in the east, where scattered totals of a tenth or two to an inch fell from WI to PA. KS/N MO also picked up decent rainfall totals, while the Dakotas and NE and most of IA/MN were mostly short-changed. More of the same is expected for the rest of the week and into the weekend, with the best coverage expected from a system working across the southern Midwest; totals will be more scattered further to the north.
Temperatures in the western Corn Belt on Thursday look to be well below those of recent days, as cooler air has worked into the area; highs from the Dakotas to MI will be in the 70’s for the most part, with overnight lows falling into the 40’s and 50’s further to the north in ND/MN. The cold air is not expected to last though, as highs return to more seasonally average levels by the end of the weekend and then return to above average into next week.
Week two precipitation maps, which now reach the end of the month, have trended drier for most of the Midwest all week, and now only show above average precipitation potential in the far northern part of the Corn Belt. The southern Midwest into the southeast and mid-south now see drier biases in the period, as southwestern US dryness is seen expanding east.
Have a great day.
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