Good morning.
CBOT markets are higher this morning to start Friday trade, with the soy complex once again in the driver’s seat. The grains though are showing better participation in the up move than they did yesterday, with both corn and wheat also showing good strength early this morning. As we head into the weekend, market focus looks to remain on US crop sizes and weather, but in our opinion, it would appear as though some of the more bearish yield scenarios have been priced in at this point, with an early seasonal bottom possibly being scored earlier this week. Corn futures to start Friday are trading 6-7 cents higher, soybean futures are trading 11-12 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 8-9 cents higher. Products are higher as well; soybean meal is up around $2/ton and soybean oil is up 60-70 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are up around $1/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 50 points, and the US$ index is down 40 points; the S&P500 is unchanged, and the NASDAQ is up 10 points.
The International Grains Council (IGC) on Thursday held its global corn harvest estimate for the 2025/26 season steady from last month at 1.276 billion tons, which is up from the current season’s 1.228-billion-ton estimate; gains in the US were offset by cuts in both Hungary and Romania, resulting in unchanged forecast. The group also held its wheat estimate for the 2025/26 season steady from June at 808 MMTs, compared to 800 MMTs last year.
Weekly crop data from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, released yesterday, showed Argentina’s corn harvest advanced 8.5% over the past week to 78.9% complete, which continues to be ahead of average and on pace with last year. Wheat planting advanced just 1.8% on the week to 92.8% complete, as wet weather slowed progress.
The rumor mill this week saw some chatter circulating of corn pollination issues in some local areas due to what is being called “tight tassel wrap”, which is a phenomenon where corn tassels remain too tightly wrapped in the upper leaves of the plant to properly shed pollen. We have little way of knowing today whether this is an actual issue or not, but it seems likely that the headline attention the story received was the result of a lack of news otherwise more than anything else.
In a weekly report, French farm group FranceAgriMer said on Friday that the country’s soft wheat harvest advanced nearly 40% in the past week, going from 36% complete in the week ending July 7th to now 71% complete as of July 14th; the figure also compares to just 12% as of the same day last year. The report also showed French corn conditions declining 3% on the week to 72% in the ‘very good’ category, which compares to 81% last year.
At a Canadian farm show earlier this week, producers and industry analysts said Canadian wheat and canola crops are likely to be near average levels, citing extremely variable weather conditions across the country’s vast growing region. Said one farm investor, “It’s such a mixed bag,” adding that he saw a wide range of crops from “terrific” to “terrible” across a stretch of some 225,000 acres that he owns across the Canadian Prairies.
According to the USDA, barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending July 12th were seen at 554k tons, down just over 29% from the week prior. Corn shipments in the week were seen at 267k tons, down 55.1% from the week prior, and soybean shipments totaled 216k tons, up 60% from the week prior. STL barge rates were seen at $15.96/short ton, up $2.71 on the week.
According to sources familiar with the situation, Union Pacific Railroad is exploring the acquisition of Norfolk Southern, possibly setting up one the largest railroad deals of all-time. The sources say talks are in the early stages, with representatives from each of the two companies declining to offer comment. It is unclear at this point what the odds of the merger occurring actually are.
Both the GFS and the EU forecasts for the weekend are in fairly good agreement on continued thunderstorm activity for most of the Corn Belt, as ridge-riding storm system across the top of the southwestern US high pressure ridge look to keep parading through the area. The EU’s model output shows 0.5-1.5″ of precipitation possible over the next 72 hours, impacting an area from the Dakota’s to the East Coast, with some areas seeing lesser totals; exact locations and amounts will be difficult to predict.
Temperatures look to stay on the cooler side for another day or two across the Midwest, as a cold front moved through the area during the day yesterday and overnight last night which dropped temps significantly from recent days. However, the mild air won’t last long, as models are in good agreement on heat returning to the whole of the Corn Belt by the middle of next week.
Longer term, warm and dry forecasts into the opening days of August are slightly concerning for the soybean crop, but the progressive nature of the summer weather pattern so far means we likely need to see these forecasts move more into the short term before the market begins to get concerned. For now, though, it’s tough to build an overly bullish weather story when rains continue falling every day or every other day.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 07-18-2025
Good morning.
CBOT markets are higher this morning to start Friday trade, with the soy complex once again in the driver’s seat. The grains though are showing better participation in the up move than they did yesterday, with both corn and wheat also showing good strength early this morning. As we head into the weekend, market focus looks to remain on US crop sizes and weather, but in our opinion, it would appear as though some of the more bearish yield scenarios have been priced in at this point, with an early seasonal bottom possibly being scored earlier this week. Corn futures to start Friday are trading 6-7 cents higher, soybean futures are trading 11-12 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 8-9 cents higher. Products are higher as well; soybean meal is up around $2/ton and soybean oil is up 60-70 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are up around $1/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 50 points, and the US$ index is down 40 points; the S&P500 is unchanged, and the NASDAQ is up 10 points.
The International Grains Council (IGC) on Thursday held its global corn harvest estimate for the 2025/26 season steady from last month at 1.276 billion tons, which is up from the current season’s 1.228-billion-ton estimate; gains in the US were offset by cuts in both Hungary and Romania, resulting in unchanged forecast. The group also held its wheat estimate for the 2025/26 season steady from June at 808 MMTs, compared to 800 MMTs last year.
Weekly crop data from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, released yesterday, showed Argentina’s corn harvest advanced 8.5% over the past week to 78.9% complete, which continues to be ahead of average and on pace with last year. Wheat planting advanced just 1.8% on the week to 92.8% complete, as wet weather slowed progress.
The rumor mill this week saw some chatter circulating of corn pollination issues in some local areas due to what is being called “tight tassel wrap”, which is a phenomenon where corn tassels remain too tightly wrapped in the upper leaves of the plant to properly shed pollen. We have little way of knowing today whether this is an actual issue or not, but it seems likely that the headline attention the story received was the result of a lack of news otherwise more than anything else.
In a weekly report, French farm group FranceAgriMer said on Friday that the country’s soft wheat harvest advanced nearly 40% in the past week, going from 36% complete in the week ending July 7th to now 71% complete as of July 14th; the figure also compares to just 12% as of the same day last year. The report also showed French corn conditions declining 3% on the week to 72% in the ‘very good’ category, which compares to 81% last year.
At a Canadian farm show earlier this week, producers and industry analysts said Canadian wheat and canola crops are likely to be near average levels, citing extremely variable weather conditions across the country’s vast growing region. Said one farm investor, “It’s such a mixed bag,” adding that he saw a wide range of crops from “terrific” to “terrible” across a stretch of some 225,000 acres that he owns across the Canadian Prairies.
According to the USDA, barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending July 12th were seen at 554k tons, down just over 29% from the week prior. Corn shipments in the week were seen at 267k tons, down 55.1% from the week prior, and soybean shipments totaled 216k tons, up 60% from the week prior. STL barge rates were seen at $15.96/short ton, up $2.71 on the week.
According to sources familiar with the situation, Union Pacific Railroad is exploring the acquisition of Norfolk Southern, possibly setting up one the largest railroad deals of all-time. The sources say talks are in the early stages, with representatives from each of the two companies declining to offer comment. It is unclear at this point what the odds of the merger occurring actually are.
Both the GFS and the EU forecasts for the weekend are in fairly good agreement on continued thunderstorm activity for most of the Corn Belt, as ridge-riding storm system across the top of the southwestern US high pressure ridge look to keep parading through the area. The EU’s model output shows 0.5-1.5″ of precipitation possible over the next 72 hours, impacting an area from the Dakota’s to the East Coast, with some areas seeing lesser totals; exact locations and amounts will be difficult to predict.
Temperatures look to stay on the cooler side for another day or two across the Midwest, as a cold front moved through the area during the day yesterday and overnight last night which dropped temps significantly from recent days. However, the mild air won’t last long, as models are in good agreement on heat returning to the whole of the Corn Belt by the middle of next week.
Longer term, warm and dry forecasts into the opening days of August are slightly concerning for the soybean crop, but the progressive nature of the summer weather pattern so far means we likely need to see these forecasts move more into the short term before the market begins to get concerned. For now, though, it’s tough to build an overly bullish weather story when rains continue falling every day or every other day.
Have a great day.
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