Good morning.
Ag markets are mixed to start Tuesday in what has been a fairly quiet overnight trading session. Monday’s crop update did not provide much in the way of surprises, as ratings continue to stay high relative to recent history, despite weather in parts of the Corn Belt that has been less than ideal. The northwest has seen too much rain, while the south and southeast have been hot and dry. The million-dollar question is do the near-ideal conditions in the I-states and parts of Missouri offset these less-than-ideal areas. Today, the trade seemingly thinks the answer to that question is yes, as is reflected in the continually growing fund short positions. Corn futures this morning are a half cent to a penny lower, soybean futures are up 1-2 cents, and the Chicago wheat market is down 5-6 cents. Products are mixed, soybean meal is unchanged, and soybean oil is trading 5-10 points lower. Outside markets are mixed also, crude oil futures are down 40 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 30 points, and the US$ index is up 10 points. The S&P500 and the NASDAQ are both trading either side of unchanged.
Yesterday’s weekly crop progress report showed as of Sunday, July 21st, 67% of the corn crop was rated g/ex, while 68% of the soybean crop was rated g/ex. Soybean conditions were unchanged, while corn conditions were down 1%; the trade expected no change for either.
At the state level, the biggest improvement in corn conditions came in Texas (+8%), while North Carolina a Colorado both improved by 6% in the g/ex category. North Dakota saw a 7% decline, Tennessee was down 5%, and both Kansas and Michigan were down 4%.
The biggest improvement in soybean conditions by far came from North Carolina, where g/ex ratings improved by 19%. South Dakota, Wisconsin, and Ohio all saw 4% improvements. Kansas was down 8%, while Arkansas, Tennessee and North Dakota all declined by 4%.
Corn silking progress advanced to 61% vs the five-year average of 56%, while the amount of crop in the dough stage advanced to 17%, vs the five-year average of 11%. Soybean blooming was seen at 65% vs the five-year average of 60%, and the amount of the crop setting pods was seen at 29% compared to the five-year average of 24%.
In wheat, winter wheat harvest advanced to 76% complete, while spring wheat conditions were unchanged on the week at 67% g/ex. 89% of the spring wheat crop is headed, up 13% from last week.
According to the EU’s Monitoring Agricultural Resources unit (MARS), corn yield out of the bloc is expected 7.24 tons/ha, which is down from June’s estimate of 7.55 ton/ha, and is also now below the five-year average. The group cited heat/dryness in south-central and southeastern Europe, as well as too wet of weather in the northwest, as reasons for the reduction.
Following recent tech-related headlines pertaining to trade restrictions on China, Tesla and Alphabet will report private earnings on Tuesday in an effort to cement the recovery effort in ‘big tech’ that has been underway since the end of last week.
Vice President Kamala Harris has secured enough pledged delegates to clinch the Democratic Presidential nomination following Joe Biden’s decision to drop out of the race on Sunday; her campaign sourced a record $81 mil in the first 24 hours since Sunday, with more than 60% of this money coming from first-time donors.
Harris will kick off her presidential campaign in Milwaukee, Wisconsin on Tuesday; online source PredictIt shows Harris’s probability at winning the election currently at 44%, compared to Trump’s 60%.
Beginning to sound like a broken record on previous days’ rainfall, as again satellite data for the past 24 hours shows scattered storms providing moisture to the south/southeast/east coast, while areas of KS/NE and northern WI/MN also saw precipitation. Totals ranged anywhere from 0.1-3″, with the heaviest amounts being noted in central and eastern TX.
These areas look to again receive moisture on Tuesday, as flow out of the Gulf of Mexico stays active and the Bermuda high pressure ridge keeps these storms further north into the southeastern part of the US.
This pattern looks to persist at least through the end of this week/weekend, with the models showing the possibility for an additional 1-4″ from eastern TX to the Carolinas. The EU model is currently wetter around the Mississippi Delta than what the GFS is, but otherwise models are in fair agreement on the rest of this week.
The temp outlook remains mostly the same as yesterday; models still see heat from a western high pressure ridge making its way more into the central part of the country by this weekend, which will provide a warm-up in Midwest temps. Highs stretch into the upper 90’s/lower 100’s for the Dakota’s and Nebraska by Thursday, while the eastern Corn Belt sees highs in the upper 80’s/lower 90’s.
Extended range temp guidance has again trended warmer into the first half of August, though confidence this far out is not high. Amid the importance of August weather to soybean yields however, this is a development that will need monitoring.
Precipitation is seen staying average/above average to accompany this heat in the East, but it is areas in the western/northwestern Corn Belt that have a drier bias that are areas of concern. Amid an abundance of June moisture in these areas, the question becomes how much heat/dryness can be endured before that moisture surplus is gone?
International updates overnight were minimal; Australia trended wetter in the West, but this was pretty much the only update of note. No change was seen in Ukraine/the Black Sea or broader Europe, nor was there any change noted in China or South America.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 07-23-2024
Good morning.
Ag markets are mixed to start Tuesday in what has been a fairly quiet overnight trading session. Monday’s crop update did not provide much in the way of surprises, as ratings continue to stay high relative to recent history, despite weather in parts of the Corn Belt that has been less than ideal. The northwest has seen too much rain, while the south and southeast have been hot and dry. The million-dollar question is do the near-ideal conditions in the I-states and parts of Missouri offset these less-than-ideal areas. Today, the trade seemingly thinks the answer to that question is yes, as is reflected in the continually growing fund short positions. Corn futures this morning are a half cent to a penny lower, soybean futures are up 1-2 cents, and the Chicago wheat market is down 5-6 cents. Products are mixed, soybean meal is unchanged, and soybean oil is trading 5-10 points lower. Outside markets are mixed also, crude oil futures are down 40 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 30 points, and the US$ index is up 10 points. The S&P500 and the NASDAQ are both trading either side of unchanged.
Yesterday’s weekly crop progress report showed as of Sunday, July 21st, 67% of the corn crop was rated g/ex, while 68% of the soybean crop was rated g/ex. Soybean conditions were unchanged, while corn conditions were down 1%; the trade expected no change for either.
At the state level, the biggest improvement in corn conditions came in Texas (+8%), while North Carolina a Colorado both improved by 6% in the g/ex category. North Dakota saw a 7% decline, Tennessee was down 5%, and both Kansas and Michigan were down 4%.
The biggest improvement in soybean conditions by far came from North Carolina, where g/ex ratings improved by 19%. South Dakota, Wisconsin, and Ohio all saw 4% improvements. Kansas was down 8%, while Arkansas, Tennessee and North Dakota all declined by 4%.
Corn silking progress advanced to 61% vs the five-year average of 56%, while the amount of crop in the dough stage advanced to 17%, vs the five-year average of 11%. Soybean blooming was seen at 65% vs the five-year average of 60%, and the amount of the crop setting pods was seen at 29% compared to the five-year average of 24%.
In wheat, winter wheat harvest advanced to 76% complete, while spring wheat conditions were unchanged on the week at 67% g/ex. 89% of the spring wheat crop is headed, up 13% from last week.
According to the EU’s Monitoring Agricultural Resources unit (MARS), corn yield out of the bloc is expected 7.24 tons/ha, which is down from June’s estimate of 7.55 ton/ha, and is also now below the five-year average. The group cited heat/dryness in south-central and southeastern Europe, as well as too wet of weather in the northwest, as reasons for the reduction.
Following recent tech-related headlines pertaining to trade restrictions on China, Tesla and Alphabet will report private earnings on Tuesday in an effort to cement the recovery effort in ‘big tech’ that has been underway since the end of last week.
Vice President Kamala Harris has secured enough pledged delegates to clinch the Democratic Presidential nomination following Joe Biden’s decision to drop out of the race on Sunday; her campaign sourced a record $81 mil in the first 24 hours since Sunday, with more than 60% of this money coming from first-time donors.
Harris will kick off her presidential campaign in Milwaukee, Wisconsin on Tuesday; online source PredictIt shows Harris’s probability at winning the election currently at 44%, compared to Trump’s 60%.
Beginning to sound like a broken record on previous days’ rainfall, as again satellite data for the past 24 hours shows scattered storms providing moisture to the south/southeast/east coast, while areas of KS/NE and northern WI/MN also saw precipitation. Totals ranged anywhere from 0.1-3″, with the heaviest amounts being noted in central and eastern TX.
These areas look to again receive moisture on Tuesday, as flow out of the Gulf of Mexico stays active and the Bermuda high pressure ridge keeps these storms further north into the southeastern part of the US.
This pattern looks to persist at least through the end of this week/weekend, with the models showing the possibility for an additional 1-4″ from eastern TX to the Carolinas. The EU model is currently wetter around the Mississippi Delta than what the GFS is, but otherwise models are in fair agreement on the rest of this week.
The temp outlook remains mostly the same as yesterday; models still see heat from a western high pressure ridge making its way more into the central part of the country by this weekend, which will provide a warm-up in Midwest temps. Highs stretch into the upper 90’s/lower 100’s for the Dakota’s and Nebraska by Thursday, while the eastern Corn Belt sees highs in the upper 80’s/lower 90’s.
Extended range temp guidance has again trended warmer into the first half of August, though confidence this far out is not high. Amid the importance of August weather to soybean yields however, this is a development that will need monitoring.
Precipitation is seen staying average/above average to accompany this heat in the East, but it is areas in the western/northwestern Corn Belt that have a drier bias that are areas of concern. Amid an abundance of June moisture in these areas, the question becomes how much heat/dryness can be endured before that moisture surplus is gone?
International updates overnight were minimal; Australia trended wetter in the West, but this was pretty much the only update of note. No change was seen in Ukraine/the Black Sea or broader Europe, nor was there any change noted in China or South America.
Have a great day.
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