Good morning.
The CBOT is again mixed overnight; corn and Chicago wheat futures are trading near unchanged, while soybeans are lower but some 10-15 cents off the overnight lows. Fresh breaking news was absent overnight, as the warmer and drier forecast into the first week of August should provide support for the rest of this week. Potential exists for large crops, but good finishing weather is needed in the month of August to ensure this potential comes to fruition. And elsewhere in the markets, political headlines will continue to make waves until November’s election. Corn futures this morning are trading unchanged, soybean futures are 3-5 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is up a penny. Products are mixed, soybean meal is trading either side of unchanged, and soybean oil is down around 40 points. Outside markets are mixed also, crude oil futures are up 80-90 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 150 points, and the US$ index is down 10 points. The S&P500 is down 40 points, and the NASDAQ is down 230 points.
This morning’s weekly ethanol production report for the week ending July 19th is expected to show daily production in a range of 1.070-1.106 mil bbls and is expected to show stocks for the week between 23.000-23.660 mil bbls.
The US Wheat Quality Council began a three-day tour of spring wheat fields in North Dakota on Tuesday; the tour found yield potential that was similar to last year but did mention a fungal disease (scab) had impacted many fields due to ample rainfall this spring.
The tour estimated yield on day one following seven field stops at 35.8 bu/acre, compared to 36.7 bu/acre on the same route last year. The tour is expected to release its full results on Thursday.
Soft wheat exports out of the EU have totaled 1.44 mil tons so far in the season that began July 1 according to the European Commission, down nearly 35% from the same period last year. The Commission notes data for France is incomplete though, due to ongoing technical issues with the reporting system.
Same group sees EU corn imports in the period to July 21 totaling 1.42 mil tons, up 39% from last year, while soybean imports were seen at 600,331 tons, down 26% from last year.
Brazilian grain exporter association Anec sees soybean meal exports out of the country in July reaching 2.4 mmt’s, which would be a new record for the month. The estimate compares to their previous guess of 2.23 mmt’s, and the 2.27 mmt’s shipped in May. If realized, exports would also be up nearly 11% from the same month last year.
Private Russian ag consultancy SovEcon lowered their estimate of the 2024/25 Russian corn crop to 13.4 mmt’s, down from June’s estimate of 14.6 mmt’s. The group cited heat in southern growing regions as reason for the cut.
China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs on Wednesday said that the country’s summer grain output saw its largest y/y increase in the last nine years. The main factor was wheat, which saw planted area up from last year, as well as yields that were more than 2.5% higher than last year.
According to the USDA, the US produced 8.81 bil eggs in June, down from 8.95 bil in same month last year. Output of table eggs was down 1.5% at 7.56 bil, and output of hatching eggs was down 2% at 1.25 bil.
USDA also sees total US milk production in June at 18.767 bil lbs., down 0.3% from June of 2023, and down 4.6% from last month.
In the political world, Kamala Harris addressed her supports for the first-time last night as the likely Presidential candidate for the Democratic party. Donald Trump is scheduled to hold a rally in North Carolina today, while current US President Joe Biden is expected to address the nation at 7pm central time this evening in a televised speech.
The other political headline overnight is that Trump has filed a legal complaint over the transfer of Joe Biden’s $96 mil campaign war chest to Kamala Harris, with his lawyers calling the move a ‘brazen money grab.’
NASDAQ futures are lower this morning following disappointing earnings reports from Tesla, as well as LVMH and Duetsche Bank in Europe. Tesla shares were down nearly 7% in premarket trading this morning. Alphabet was the bright spot in the earnings slate, with Q2 revenue that came in above expectations; however, its shares were also lower in premarket trade.
Equity markets will also be tuned in to the Bank of Canada on Wednesday morning, as the trade is expecting a 0.25% rate cut to be the result of the country’s most recent policy meeting.
According to preliminary data from an EU monitoring agency, Monday was the hottest day on record, surpassing the previous record that was set Sunday and lasted all of 24 hours. The average global surface temp was 17.15 degrees C, 0.06 degrees higher than Sunday’s average. The agency has been tracking data since 1940.
Rainfall Tuesday was again mostly in the southeastern corner of the country, with totals from E TX to the Carolina’s and Virginia totaling 0.1-3″. Totals were widely variable. A band of storms also provided 0.1-1.5″ of precipitation to S MN, NE IA, and N IL. Most of MI also saw good rains.
The rest of the week still looks to follow a similar pattern, with both the GFS and the EU models in good agreement on an additional 0.75-3.5″ of precipitation for the southeast through Friday night. Temps in the eastern half of the country will be near average for another couple days, before heat expands by early next week.
Week-two forecasts continue to trend warmer and drier, which is the forecast feature that currently has ag traders the most concerned. CPC guidance updated yesterday for the first week of August shows below average precipitation chances now as far east as the IA/IL line, while temps in the same period are seen above average for the entire country besides far S TX.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 07-24-2024
Good morning.
The CBOT is again mixed overnight; corn and Chicago wheat futures are trading near unchanged, while soybeans are lower but some 10-15 cents off the overnight lows. Fresh breaking news was absent overnight, as the warmer and drier forecast into the first week of August should provide support for the rest of this week. Potential exists for large crops, but good finishing weather is needed in the month of August to ensure this potential comes to fruition. And elsewhere in the markets, political headlines will continue to make waves until November’s election. Corn futures this morning are trading unchanged, soybean futures are 3-5 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is up a penny. Products are mixed, soybean meal is trading either side of unchanged, and soybean oil is down around 40 points. Outside markets are mixed also, crude oil futures are up 80-90 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 150 points, and the US$ index is down 10 points. The S&P500 is down 40 points, and the NASDAQ is down 230 points.
This morning’s weekly ethanol production report for the week ending July 19th is expected to show daily production in a range of 1.070-1.106 mil bbls and is expected to show stocks for the week between 23.000-23.660 mil bbls.
The US Wheat Quality Council began a three-day tour of spring wheat fields in North Dakota on Tuesday; the tour found yield potential that was similar to last year but did mention a fungal disease (scab) had impacted many fields due to ample rainfall this spring.
The tour estimated yield on day one following seven field stops at 35.8 bu/acre, compared to 36.7 bu/acre on the same route last year. The tour is expected to release its full results on Thursday.
Soft wheat exports out of the EU have totaled 1.44 mil tons so far in the season that began July 1 according to the European Commission, down nearly 35% from the same period last year. The Commission notes data for France is incomplete though, due to ongoing technical issues with the reporting system.
Same group sees EU corn imports in the period to July 21 totaling 1.42 mil tons, up 39% from last year, while soybean imports were seen at 600,331 tons, down 26% from last year.
Brazilian grain exporter association Anec sees soybean meal exports out of the country in July reaching 2.4 mmt’s, which would be a new record for the month. The estimate compares to their previous guess of 2.23 mmt’s, and the 2.27 mmt’s shipped in May. If realized, exports would also be up nearly 11% from the same month last year.
Private Russian ag consultancy SovEcon lowered their estimate of the 2024/25 Russian corn crop to 13.4 mmt’s, down from June’s estimate of 14.6 mmt’s. The group cited heat in southern growing regions as reason for the cut.
China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs on Wednesday said that the country’s summer grain output saw its largest y/y increase in the last nine years. The main factor was wheat, which saw planted area up from last year, as well as yields that were more than 2.5% higher than last year.
According to the USDA, the US produced 8.81 bil eggs in June, down from 8.95 bil in same month last year. Output of table eggs was down 1.5% at 7.56 bil, and output of hatching eggs was down 2% at 1.25 bil.
USDA also sees total US milk production in June at 18.767 bil lbs., down 0.3% from June of 2023, and down 4.6% from last month.
In the political world, Kamala Harris addressed her supports for the first-time last night as the likely Presidential candidate for the Democratic party. Donald Trump is scheduled to hold a rally in North Carolina today, while current US President Joe Biden is expected to address the nation at 7pm central time this evening in a televised speech.
The other political headline overnight is that Trump has filed a legal complaint over the transfer of Joe Biden’s $96 mil campaign war chest to Kamala Harris, with his lawyers calling the move a ‘brazen money grab.’
NASDAQ futures are lower this morning following disappointing earnings reports from Tesla, as well as LVMH and Duetsche Bank in Europe. Tesla shares were down nearly 7% in premarket trading this morning. Alphabet was the bright spot in the earnings slate, with Q2 revenue that came in above expectations; however, its shares were also lower in premarket trade.
Equity markets will also be tuned in to the Bank of Canada on Wednesday morning, as the trade is expecting a 0.25% rate cut to be the result of the country’s most recent policy meeting.
According to preliminary data from an EU monitoring agency, Monday was the hottest day on record, surpassing the previous record that was set Sunday and lasted all of 24 hours. The average global surface temp was 17.15 degrees C, 0.06 degrees higher than Sunday’s average. The agency has been tracking data since 1940.
Rainfall Tuesday was again mostly in the southeastern corner of the country, with totals from E TX to the Carolina’s and Virginia totaling 0.1-3″. Totals were widely variable. A band of storms also provided 0.1-1.5″ of precipitation to S MN, NE IA, and N IL. Most of MI also saw good rains.
The rest of the week still looks to follow a similar pattern, with both the GFS and the EU models in good agreement on an additional 0.75-3.5″ of precipitation for the southeast through Friday night. Temps in the eastern half of the country will be near average for another couple days, before heat expands by early next week.
Week-two forecasts continue to trend warmer and drier, which is the forecast feature that currently has ag traders the most concerned. CPC guidance updated yesterday for the first week of August shows below average precipitation chances now as far east as the IA/IL line, while temps in the same period are seen above average for the entire country besides far S TX.
Have a great day.
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