Good morning.
Mixed in light volume has been the overnight trade at the CBOT, as markets continue to thrash around near recent lows. Until corn and soybeans can go more than a couple trading sessions without making new contract lows, the trend looks to remain lower in ag futures. Large US crop sizes are seemingly getting bigger in the eastern part of the Midwest, as ridge-riding thunderstorms are providing excellent August rainfall. Wind and hail damage are obviously the risks on the other side of these storms, but as long as widespread damage can be avoided, the late July rains looks to set up an ideal finish to the crop. Corn futures are trading a half cent lower this morning, soybean futures are down 2-3 cents, and the Chicago wheat market is up 5-6 cents. Products are mixed, soybean meal is up around 50 cents/ton, and soybean oil is 20-30 points lower. Outside markets are mostly higher, crude oil futures are 40-50 cents/bbl higher, the Dow Jones index is up 20 points, and the US$ index is up 30 points. The S&P500 is up 25 points, and the NASDAQ is up 100 points.
This morning’s weekly export sales report for the week ending July 25th is expected to show old crop corn sales in a range of 275k-600k mt’s, and old crop soybean sales in a range of 75k-300k mt’s.
For new crop, corn sales are estimated in a range of 400k-800k mt’s, soybean sales are estimated in a range of 300k-900k mt’s, and wheat sales are estimated in a range of 250k-550k mt’s.
This afternoon’s USDA fats & oil report for June is expected to show soybean crush in the month at 184.584 mil bu’s; this would be down from May’s 192.0 mil bu’s and would compare to NOPA’s June crush estimate of 175.559 mil bu’s. NOPA members account for roughly 95% of US soybean processing.
China’s state buyer Sinograin has announced it will start buying more new crop wheat to fill its reserves in an effort to support prices. Farmers have been forced to sell what crop they have at three-year low prices due to flooding that has jeopardized storage.
As of the most recent data, China is reporting a 2.7% increase year/year in their wheat harvest, while imports of the crop are also estimated to be up roughly 16% through the first half of 2024.
USDA’s NASS announced on Wednesday that it would be doing a comprehensive acreage review ahead of the August WASDE report, with any findings to be published in said report.
The statement says NASS will review all available data, including survey data from farmers, as well as the most recent information from both the USDA’s Farm Service Agency (FSA), and Risk Management Agency (RMA).
Big news for the week in equity markets was the decision from the US Fed to leave rates unchanged for another meeting. Powell signaled cuts are getting closer, and could come as early as September, should progress on inflation continue on the path it has been on.
His counterparts in Europe however did not make the same decision, as policy makers at the ECB cut rates by 0.25% for the first time in more than four years. Five policymakers voted for the cut, while 4 voted against it.
Meanwhile, markets in the US today will have their attention turned to weekly jobless data, as well as a slew of corporate earnings with the most notable being Apple and Amazon, who are both set to report after the close.
Ridge-riding thunderstorms continue to provide rains to the mid-section of the country, with 24-hour satellite data showing rains of 0.1-2″ impacting areas of the E Dakota’s/S Minnesota, south/central NE, the eastern 2/3 of KS, N MO, S IA, and west/central IL. Rains also reached into S IN and most of KY. Similar totals of rainfall were also seen in the northeast and southeast.
Some model divergence has been seen overnight between the GFS and EU models in the short-term; both see rains of 1-2″ with some locally heavier amounts, but the GFS has the rains further east, while the EU keeps moisture more in the central Corn Belt.
Biggest feature for next week is the tropical system in the Atlantic, which is causing the model discrepancies. The EU has the system developing earlier and more on the Atlantic side of FL, while the GFS is several days later, and has the storm tracking more through the Gulf of Mexico. This will need monitoring into the first part of next week.
Week-two forecasts are in decent agreement this morning, with both the EU and GFS showing above average precipitation chances for the northern 2/3 of the country, while the CPC sees above average precipitation for nearly the entire country. Temps are also continuing to trend cooler in the week two period.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 08-01-2024
Good morning.
Mixed in light volume has been the overnight trade at the CBOT, as markets continue to thrash around near recent lows. Until corn and soybeans can go more than a couple trading sessions without making new contract lows, the trend looks to remain lower in ag futures. Large US crop sizes are seemingly getting bigger in the eastern part of the Midwest, as ridge-riding thunderstorms are providing excellent August rainfall. Wind and hail damage are obviously the risks on the other side of these storms, but as long as widespread damage can be avoided, the late July rains looks to set up an ideal finish to the crop. Corn futures are trading a half cent lower this morning, soybean futures are down 2-3 cents, and the Chicago wheat market is up 5-6 cents. Products are mixed, soybean meal is up around 50 cents/ton, and soybean oil is 20-30 points lower. Outside markets are mostly higher, crude oil futures are 40-50 cents/bbl higher, the Dow Jones index is up 20 points, and the US$ index is up 30 points. The S&P500 is up 25 points, and the NASDAQ is up 100 points.
This morning’s weekly export sales report for the week ending July 25th is expected to show old crop corn sales in a range of 275k-600k mt’s, and old crop soybean sales in a range of 75k-300k mt’s.
For new crop, corn sales are estimated in a range of 400k-800k mt’s, soybean sales are estimated in a range of 300k-900k mt’s, and wheat sales are estimated in a range of 250k-550k mt’s.
This afternoon’s USDA fats & oil report for June is expected to show soybean crush in the month at 184.584 mil bu’s; this would be down from May’s 192.0 mil bu’s and would compare to NOPA’s June crush estimate of 175.559 mil bu’s. NOPA members account for roughly 95% of US soybean processing.
China’s state buyer Sinograin has announced it will start buying more new crop wheat to fill its reserves in an effort to support prices. Farmers have been forced to sell what crop they have at three-year low prices due to flooding that has jeopardized storage.
As of the most recent data, China is reporting a 2.7% increase year/year in their wheat harvest, while imports of the crop are also estimated to be up roughly 16% through the first half of 2024.
USDA’s NASS announced on Wednesday that it would be doing a comprehensive acreage review ahead of the August WASDE report, with any findings to be published in said report.
The statement says NASS will review all available data, including survey data from farmers, as well as the most recent information from both the USDA’s Farm Service Agency (FSA), and Risk Management Agency (RMA).
Big news for the week in equity markets was the decision from the US Fed to leave rates unchanged for another meeting. Powell signaled cuts are getting closer, and could come as early as September, should progress on inflation continue on the path it has been on.
His counterparts in Europe however did not make the same decision, as policy makers at the ECB cut rates by 0.25% for the first time in more than four years. Five policymakers voted for the cut, while 4 voted against it.
Meanwhile, markets in the US today will have their attention turned to weekly jobless data, as well as a slew of corporate earnings with the most notable being Apple and Amazon, who are both set to report after the close.
Ridge-riding thunderstorms continue to provide rains to the mid-section of the country, with 24-hour satellite data showing rains of 0.1-2″ impacting areas of the E Dakota’s/S Minnesota, south/central NE, the eastern 2/3 of KS, N MO, S IA, and west/central IL. Rains also reached into S IN and most of KY. Similar totals of rainfall were also seen in the northeast and southeast.
Some model divergence has been seen overnight between the GFS and EU models in the short-term; both see rains of 1-2″ with some locally heavier amounts, but the GFS has the rains further east, while the EU keeps moisture more in the central Corn Belt.
Biggest feature for next week is the tropical system in the Atlantic, which is causing the model discrepancies. The EU has the system developing earlier and more on the Atlantic side of FL, while the GFS is several days later, and has the storm tracking more through the Gulf of Mexico. This will need monitoring into the first part of next week.
Week-two forecasts are in decent agreement this morning, with both the EU and GFS showing above average precipitation chances for the northern 2/3 of the country, while the CPC sees above average precipitation for nearly the entire country. Temps are also continuing to trend cooler in the week two period.
Have a great day.
View All News >