Good morning.
Markets at the CBOT are mostly higher to start the last day of the week, with soybeans leading the way. Overnight rumors of additional purchases by the Chinese have led to more short covering as we head into the weekend. Otherwise, it continues to be weather and yield prospects that dominate daily chatter. New long-range guidance for the month of August released yesterday continues to show a non-threatening forecast for most of the Corn Belt, which would be conducive to finishing off crops. Corn futures this morning are 1-2 cents higher, soybean futures are 10-12 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is down a penny. Products are higher, soybean meal is up $2-3/ton, and soybean oil is up 10-20 points. Outside markets are mixed/lower, crude oil futures are up 10-15 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 325 points, and the US$ index is down 30 points. The S&P500 is down 50 points, and the NASDAQ is down 300 points.
After the close yesterday, USDA released its fats and oils report and grain crushings report for June. The reports showed June soybean crush at 184 mil bu, while corn grind for ethanol totaled 442 mil bu. The soybean crush figure was near the average trade guess, while the corn grind figure was well below the average trade guess.
Soybean oil stocks were seen at 2.125 bil lbs., which was slightly above the average trade guess. Oil stocks were 3.5% lower than June of last year.
Also, out after the close yesterday were new production estimates from private group StoneX; the group estimated US corn yield at 182.3 bu/acre, and soybean yield at 52.6 bu/acre. These are both above current USDA estimates of 181.0 and 52.0 respectively.
Same group sees Brazil 2024/25 soybean crop reaching 165 mmt’s; Exports are seen up 11% from the current year at 102 mmt’s, with planted area seen up 0.8% at 46 mil hectares.
The weekly update from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange showed winter wheat planting in Argentina had reached 100% over the past week, with total area still seen at 6.3 mil hectares.
The report also showed corn harvest in Argentina reached 92% complete, up from last week’s 86.6% reading. Production was again unchanged at 46.5 mmt’s.
According to FranceAgriMer, soft wheat harvest in France reached 67% complete as of July 29th, up from 41% the week prior. Compares to 86% last year. 50% of the crop is rated g/ex, unchanged on the week; 79% of the corn crop is rated in the same category, which is down from 82% last week.
The United Nation’s Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) index of food-commodity prices showed global food prices declined slightly in July, as falling grain prices offset increases in veg oils, sugar, and meat.
Barge shipments down the Mississippi river in the week ending July 27th totaled 659k tons, up nearly 108% from last week. Corn shipments were seen at 411k tons, up 120% from last week, while soybean shipments were seen at 199k tons, up 152% from last week. Lock re-openings on the upper Mississippi likely accounted for the strong weekly increases.
Stock index futures are lower to start Friday, following through on yesterday’s selling. Concerns over a hard landing spurred on by yesterdays near one-year high in unemployment claims have led investors to pull some risk off the table.
On the docket for today is June payrolls data, which will now likely be under more scrutiny than usual; the report is expected to show a 175k increase in employment in July, with a downward revision potentially sparking further selling into the weekend.
Other negative news impacting equity markets to start Friday is poor earnings reports overnight from both Amazon and Intel. Apple also reported sluggish performance in China in its earnings report. All three companies traded lower in pre-market action this morning.
Weather models are continuing to struggle with the development of a Tropical Storm system in the Atlantic; today, the GFS is drastically different from prior runs, and sees the storm tracking up the east coast of Florida and not into the Gulf. This is in agreement with the EU model, which has had this solution most of the week.
Aside from the Tropical system next week, the EU model sees rains continuing to favor the northern half of the Corn Belt, as the high-pressure ridge lingers, and storms continue to run its periphery. The GFS sees similar rainfall of 1-3″ in this part of the country but is wetter in CO and the 4-corner states than the EU is.
Cooler air begins to show up in the north starting on Monday and will slowly work its way south into the end of next week. High’s next Thursday are not forecast to reach above 80 degrees F as far south as the IA/MO line, with nighttime lows dropping back into the lower 60’s.
Week-two forecasts continue to be in decent agreement on their model outputs, with all three of the GFS, EU and CPC forecasts seeing above average precipitation chances for nearly the whole of the country into August 15th. Temps are seen staying above average in the south and southwest, but cooler in the northeast and northcentral parts of the country.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 08-02-2024
Good morning.
Markets at the CBOT are mostly higher to start the last day of the week, with soybeans leading the way. Overnight rumors of additional purchases by the Chinese have led to more short covering as we head into the weekend. Otherwise, it continues to be weather and yield prospects that dominate daily chatter. New long-range guidance for the month of August released yesterday continues to show a non-threatening forecast for most of the Corn Belt, which would be conducive to finishing off crops. Corn futures this morning are 1-2 cents higher, soybean futures are 10-12 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is down a penny. Products are higher, soybean meal is up $2-3/ton, and soybean oil is up 10-20 points. Outside markets are mixed/lower, crude oil futures are up 10-15 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 325 points, and the US$ index is down 30 points. The S&P500 is down 50 points, and the NASDAQ is down 300 points.
After the close yesterday, USDA released its fats and oils report and grain crushings report for June. The reports showed June soybean crush at 184 mil bu, while corn grind for ethanol totaled 442 mil bu. The soybean crush figure was near the average trade guess, while the corn grind figure was well below the average trade guess.
Soybean oil stocks were seen at 2.125 bil lbs., which was slightly above the average trade guess. Oil stocks were 3.5% lower than June of last year.
Also, out after the close yesterday were new production estimates from private group StoneX; the group estimated US corn yield at 182.3 bu/acre, and soybean yield at 52.6 bu/acre. These are both above current USDA estimates of 181.0 and 52.0 respectively.
Same group sees Brazil 2024/25 soybean crop reaching 165 mmt’s; Exports are seen up 11% from the current year at 102 mmt’s, with planted area seen up 0.8% at 46 mil hectares.
The weekly update from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange showed winter wheat planting in Argentina had reached 100% over the past week, with total area still seen at 6.3 mil hectares.
The report also showed corn harvest in Argentina reached 92% complete, up from last week’s 86.6% reading. Production was again unchanged at 46.5 mmt’s.
According to FranceAgriMer, soft wheat harvest in France reached 67% complete as of July 29th, up from 41% the week prior. Compares to 86% last year. 50% of the crop is rated g/ex, unchanged on the week; 79% of the corn crop is rated in the same category, which is down from 82% last week.
The United Nation’s Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) index of food-commodity prices showed global food prices declined slightly in July, as falling grain prices offset increases in veg oils, sugar, and meat.
Barge shipments down the Mississippi river in the week ending July 27th totaled 659k tons, up nearly 108% from last week. Corn shipments were seen at 411k tons, up 120% from last week, while soybean shipments were seen at 199k tons, up 152% from last week. Lock re-openings on the upper Mississippi likely accounted for the strong weekly increases.
Stock index futures are lower to start Friday, following through on yesterday’s selling. Concerns over a hard landing spurred on by yesterdays near one-year high in unemployment claims have led investors to pull some risk off the table.
On the docket for today is June payrolls data, which will now likely be under more scrutiny than usual; the report is expected to show a 175k increase in employment in July, with a downward revision potentially sparking further selling into the weekend.
Other negative news impacting equity markets to start Friday is poor earnings reports overnight from both Amazon and Intel. Apple also reported sluggish performance in China in its earnings report. All three companies traded lower in pre-market action this morning.
Weather models are continuing to struggle with the development of a Tropical Storm system in the Atlantic; today, the GFS is drastically different from prior runs, and sees the storm tracking up the east coast of Florida and not into the Gulf. This is in agreement with the EU model, which has had this solution most of the week.
Aside from the Tropical system next week, the EU model sees rains continuing to favor the northern half of the Corn Belt, as the high-pressure ridge lingers, and storms continue to run its periphery. The GFS sees similar rainfall of 1-3″ in this part of the country but is wetter in CO and the 4-corner states than the EU is.
Cooler air begins to show up in the north starting on Monday and will slowly work its way south into the end of next week. High’s next Thursday are not forecast to reach above 80 degrees F as far south as the IA/MO line, with nighttime lows dropping back into the lower 60’s.
Week-two forecasts continue to be in decent agreement on their model outputs, with all three of the GFS, EU and CPC forecasts seeing above average precipitation chances for nearly the whole of the country into August 15th. Temps are seen staying above average in the south and southwest, but cooler in the northeast and northcentral parts of the country.
Have a great day.
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